NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80b69c4a8be7afeec1ed853be5417b7e1f9aab17158bafa72df28f2461b545ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Nuggets, Spurs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Spurs | 58c | 62,640$36,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,337.49 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Nuggets | 42c | 61,107$25,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,664.85 | 726 | 48.3%351 W · 375 L | +30.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x869b…c625backed Spurs | 53c | 43,012$22,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,358.77 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Nuggets | 47c | 23,845$11,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,283.65 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 48c | 10,531$5,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,024 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…ce9bbacked Nuggets | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Spurs | 46c | 4,995$2,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,697.3 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…9e65backed Spurs | 51c | 3,831$1,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,882.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Spurs | 56c | 3,570$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,570.14 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Nuggets | 44c | 2,727$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.88 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Nuggets | 47c | 2,117$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Nuggets | 49c | 1,854$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.92 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 47c | 1,636$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.35 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Nuggets | 47c | 1,421$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.74 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee0…5233backed Nuggets | 47c | 1,168$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.16 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Nuggets | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Nuggets | 44c | 823$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.12 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Nuggets | 45c | 822$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.9 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Nuggets | 47c | 800$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Nuggets | 48c | 693.48$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.87 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Spurs | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Nuggets | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b5…b6bebacked Spurs | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Nuggets | 47c | 386.89$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.18 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f7…b542backed Nuggets | 48c | 333.33$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Nuggets | 47c | 255.4$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.04 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Nuggets | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde9…51d7backed Nuggets | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -4.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Nuggets | 47c | 210$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Nuggets | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Nuggets | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Spurs | 55c | 180.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.36 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Nuggets | 46c | 140.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Nuggets | 47c | 140$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd9…00b1backed Nuggets | 47c | 119$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.31 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Nuggets | 45c | 113.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Spurs | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 631 | 42%265 W · 366 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Nuggets | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Spurs | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nuggets | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…a4ccbacked Nuggets | 47c | 84.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Nuggets | 44c | 80.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Nuggets | 51c | 70.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked Nuggets | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 152 | 45.4%69 W · 83 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb730…b3d7backed Nuggets | 44c | 56.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…a46abacked Spurs | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Spurs | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 624 | 50%312 W · 312 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Spurs | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa548…1fd5backed Nuggets | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Nuggets | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 339 | 49.9%169 W · 170 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5681…b253backed Nuggets | 47c | 38.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Nuggets | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Nuggets | 45c | 32.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Spurs | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…c325backed Nuggets | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nuggets | 41c | 27.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…6438backed Spurs | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Spurs | 44c | 26.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0825…0b5dbacked Nuggets | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Nuggets | 51c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 139 | 38.8%54 W · 85 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Spurs | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Spurs | 59c | 19.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 346 | 44.2%153 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)this page
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. NuggetsSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.