NFL · resolved market
Spread: Dolphins (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd40267062d00fc643ffe5105e879c13804da30da0fa3eaa811d811f4f11e8893
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Saintsof Dolphins, Saints
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $758,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $816,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $758,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb744…5210backed Saints | 51c | 483,825$245,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237,912.55 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Dolphins | 49c | 220,618$108,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108,103.01 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0549…c052backed Dolphins | 49c | 193,028$94,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94,583.56 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…936fbacked Dolphins | 50c | 100,000$50,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,000 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Dolphins | 50c | 65,680$32,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,840 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Saints | 50c | 50,000$25,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,000 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Saints | 50c | 40,000$20,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,000 | 169 | 55%93 W · 76 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Saints | 50c | 38,164$19,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,082.09 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Dolphins | 50c | 35,134$17,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,567 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Saints | 50c | 10,534$5,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,266.75 | 111 | 68.5%76 W · 35 L | +18.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Saints | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Dolphins | 50c | 9,200$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,600 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Saints | 50c | 7,800$3,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,928 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Saints | 50c | 7,500$3,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,750 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Saints | 50c | 7,316$3,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,658.01 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Dolphins | 50c | 5,250$2,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,625 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Dolphins | 49c | 5,214$2,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,547.57 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Dolphins | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Dolphins | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Dolphins | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Saints | 51c | 3,922$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.57 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48be…73a8backed Dolphins | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Dolphins | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…c9b4backed Saints | 51c | 2,941$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,441.18 | 181 | 40.9%74 W · 107 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8198…e96ebacked Dolphins | 51c | 2,500$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…cf77backed Dolphins | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Dolphins | 50c | 1,255$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.5 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Dolphins | 51c | 1,176$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…63d6backed Dolphins | 50c | 1,050$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Dolphins | 51c | 1,001$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Saints | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Saints | 49c | 841$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.91 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Saints | 50c | 841$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.5 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Saints | 50c | 499.98$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.74 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Dolphins | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Dolphins | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Saints | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 117 | 40.2%47 W · 70 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Dolphins | 50c | 377.66$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.02 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Saints | 52c | 307.69$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.69 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2567…2371backed Dolphins | 50c | 286$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Dolphins | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -12.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Dolphins | 48c | 207.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.69 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Dolphins | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Dolphins | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Saints | 50c | 175$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Dolphins | 50c | 175$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Dolphins | 50c | 170$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Saints | 50c | 163$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed Saints | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f2…04bebacked Dolphins | 50c | 137$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Saints | 51c | 111$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…fadabacked Dolphins | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Dolphins | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 230 | 24.3%56 W · 174 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Dolphins | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Saints | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4702…457fbacked Dolphins | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Saints | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Dolphins | 50c | 85.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f79…c16cbacked Saints | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf46c…b702backed Saints | 50c | 71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Dolphins | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd810…bbd6backed Saints | 50c | 66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Saints | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Dolphins | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Dolphins | 50c | 33.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c44…e936backed Dolphins | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -5.7wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Saints | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Dolphins | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…d869backed Dolphins | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ff…40b4backed Dolphins | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…d720backed Dolphins | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 92 | 51.1%47 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x137b…2fd5backed Dolphins | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa03d…3ae3backed Saints | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Dolphins (-5.5)this page
- Saints vs. DolphinsDolphins won
- Saints vs. Dolphins: O/U 41.5Under won
- Saints vs. Dolphins: O/U 42.5Under won
- Spread: Dolphins (-6.5)Saints won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.