NFL · resolved market
Spread: Dolphins (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0450558cd36b2f5d53deea094191b3f01f9ab53889ea4c84032e058df204b319
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Saintsof Dolphins, Saints
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $220,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $220,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $220,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb744…5210backed Saints | 55c | 200,000$110,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89,999.99 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Dolphins | 45c | 148,495$66,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66,822.84 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Dolphins | 45c | 54,600$24,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,570 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Saints | 54c | 7,257$3,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,322.79 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Dolphins | 45c | 5,301$2,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,405.73 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Saints | 55c | 5,073$2,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,284.99 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…48f3backed Dolphins | 46c | 3,211$1,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,477 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Dolphins | 46c | 1,614$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.48 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Dolphins | 45c | 1,222$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.9 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Saints | 54c | 1,189$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.94 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Dolphins | 45c | 909$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.05 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Saints | 55c | 909$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.05 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Saints | 54c | 798.15$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.15 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Saints | 55c | 555.52$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.98 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Saints | 36c | 540$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Dolphins | 45c | 501.78$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.8 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Dolphins | 77c | 500$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.5 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Dolphins | 64c | 500$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Saints | 23c | 450$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.5 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Saints | 54c | 310.38$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.25 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Saints | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 164 | 51.2%84 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Dolphins | 45c | 280$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.2 | 230 | 24.3%56 W · 174 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Dolphins | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -12.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Saints | 54c | 240.42$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.4 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Dolphins | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Saints | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Saints | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 161 | 39.1%63 W · 98 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Dolphins | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Dolphins | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Saints | 55c | 193.02$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.86 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Dolphins | 47c | 164$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Dolphins | 45c | 102.34$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Saints | 55c | 95$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Dolphins | 46c | 91.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed Saints | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Dolphins | 68c | 79.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Dolphins | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Saints | 40c | 67.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Saints | 51c | 60.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +12.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Saints | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…5ed7backed Dolphins | 66c | 57.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Dolphins | 78c | 57.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Dolphins | 46c | 56.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Dolphins | 45c | 53.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Dolphins | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Dolphins | 46c | 43.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 117 | 47.9%56 W · 61 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…f07bbacked Dolphins | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…d3bebacked Dolphins | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa221…5b1fbacked Dolphins | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Dolphins | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 126 | 63.5%80 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8317…18e3backed Dolphins | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Dolphins | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Saints | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Saints | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Saints | 53c | 22.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Saints | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Dolphins (-6.5)this page
- Saints vs. DolphinsDolphins won
- Saints vs. Dolphins: O/U 41.5Under won
- Saints vs. Dolphins: O/U 42.5Under won
- Spread: Dolphins (-5.5)Saints won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.