College Football · resolved market
Spread: Toledo (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd462bef2c212cd78a448678a68b0dd42b5564a1728b8ed200fbef661942aeb0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toledoof Toledo, Central Michigan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Central Michigan | 49c | 80,920$39,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,661.76 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Toledo | 51c | 41,000$20,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,090 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Toledo | 51c | 19,469$9,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,539.92 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Toledo | 51c | 12,215$6,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,985.35 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Central Michigan | 50c | 10,088$5,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,044.15 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Toledo | 50c | 8,000$4,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,970 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Toledo | 50c | 5,194$2,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,597.19 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Central Michigan | 49c | 4,500$2,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,205 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Toledo | 51c | 4,500$2,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,205 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed Toledo | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Toledo | 51c | 1,633$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.17 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0549…c052backed Central Michigan | 49c | 1,633$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.17 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Toledo | 50c | 694$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Central Michigan | 47c | 471.68$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.69 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Toledo | 53c | 471.68$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.69 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Toledo | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Central Michigan | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66ba…621fbacked Toledo | 51c | 120$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…a0e7backed Toledo | 51c | 117.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.31 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Toledo | 51c | 114$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Toledo | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Central Michigan | 50c | 84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Toledo | 50c | 68.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x137b…2fd5backed Central Michigan | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Toledo | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toledo (-10.5)this page
- Spread: Toledo (-9.5)Toledo won
- Toledo vs. Central MichiganToledo won
- Toledo vs. Central Michigan: O/U 45.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.