TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Broncos vs. Commanders

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Broncosof Broncos, Commanders
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,612,484
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,206,427

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,612,484 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,006 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb1d9…5ee1backed Commanders28c659,204$184,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184,577.162050%10 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0b…9f41backed Broncos72c334,769$240,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94,635.371973.7%14 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick60cpaid+36.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Broncos71c324,000$230,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93,858.2713843.5%60 W · 78 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Broncos72c192,681$138,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,950.6810333%34 W · 69 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Commanders28c145,888$40,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,848.5917041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Commanders29c145,282$41,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,679.0316836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Commanders25c140,737$34,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,729.0610026%26 W · 74 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3657…6b14backed Broncos72c138,892$100,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,892.241942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-28.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Broncos73c107,805$78,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,844.7247738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2232…f6fabacked Broncos71c93,522$66,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,088.532470.8%17 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Commanders29c90,000$26,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,10011445.6%52 W · 62 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Commanders32c85,987$27,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,765.3930043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Commanders32c84,875$27,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,120.5320755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked Commanders38c71,321$27,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,102.027951.9%41 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Commanders28c62,900$17,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,582.9814342%60 W · 83 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Broncos70c59,677$41,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,727.426459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6211…b89ebacked Commanders28c55,193$15,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,454.131656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Broncos73c52,484$38,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,148.752245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Commanders29c45,000$13,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,0505236.5%19 W · 33 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8058…d023backed Broncos72c40,000$28,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,2003268.8%22 W · 10 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+27.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Commanders29c39,807$11,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,558.5713142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Commanders26c38,252$9,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,798.288532.9%28 W · 57 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Commanders20c37,965$7,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,481.5216955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Broncos72c34,722$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,722.223056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Commanders30c34,095$10,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,371.4119645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4297…ea39backed Broncos69c33,756$23,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,621.916100%6 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+79.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Commanders29c33,486$9,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,876.3773651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Broncos70c30,530$21,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,199.3230743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Broncos68c29,345$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,344.717255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Commanders27c29,056$7,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,721.2875852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8166…6770backed Broncos72c28,537$20,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,894.891361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked Broncos76c27,100$20,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,48911254.5%61 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Broncos73c26,282$19,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,187.454062.5%25 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed Broncos71c25,000$17,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,2501968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked Commanders1c23,851$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.518540%34 W · 51 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Broncos77c22,431$17,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,125966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+25.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Commanders28c21,627$6,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,055.595837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Commanders30c20,601$6,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,251.8918650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Broncos73c18,930$13,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,169.3811643.1%50 W · 66 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Broncos71c18,510$13,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,301.6512944.2%57 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Commanders30c18,506$5,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,610.6427348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa72e…3db9backed Commanders24c16,997$4,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,039.362339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6165…db3cbacked Commanders30c16,713$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed Broncos76c16,501$12,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,028.4518156.9%103 W · 78 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Broncos72c16,032$11,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,488.9610650.9%54 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Commanders1c16,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1604515.6%7 W · 38 L+6.1wins+0.13per pick2cpaid+931.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Commanders12c15,837$1,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,869.8619235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Commanders19c15,836$3,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,057.6920026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Broncos70c15,555$10,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,666.510442.3%44 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x387c…57b3backed Commanders33c15,054$4,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,997.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Broncos71c14,910$10,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,323.927454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Commanders28c14,150$3,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,951.667248.6%35 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3300…568bbacked Broncos72c13,944$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,943.781070%7 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+21.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Commanders28c13,891$3,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,889.546550.8%33 W · 32 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f5b…d411backed Broncos77c12,802$9,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,948.452055%11 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-17.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc869…8a6ebacked Broncos72c12,673$9,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,544.219657.3%55 W · 41 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Broncos72c11,799$8,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,303.61683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick73cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Broncos71c11,240$7,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,254.7124056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9285…749ebacked Broncos58c11,000$6,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,619.99450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Commanders27c10,676$2,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,882.5586547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Broncos71c10,650$7,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,088.56645.5%30 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked Broncos72c10,584$7,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,963.522965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+30.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7104…afefbacked Broncos72c10,062$7,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,817.251450%7 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8c…9390backed Broncos72c10,000$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8007558.7%44 W · 31 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Commanders28c10,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8009754.6%53 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe965…6559backed Broncos80c9,699$7,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,980.316149.2%30 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Commanders27c9,599$2,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,618.2544652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Broncos71c9,389$6,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,676.821,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Commanders26c9,325$2,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,424.512441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Broncos71c9,318$6,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,702.221,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Commanders24c9,075$2,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,151.5226547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf48…cbbcbacked Broncos74c8,000$5,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,069.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-55%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Broncos76c7,932$6,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,903.7831543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Commanders27c7,881$2,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,127.922334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked Broncos73c7,843$5,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,119.981866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44ff…9bd1backed Broncos71c7,500$5,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,175333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-53.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Broncos76c7,219$5,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,725.6323850.8%121 W · 117 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fd1…8257backed Commanders28c7,003$1,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,960.761136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa755…e16bbacked Commanders29c6,999$2,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,029.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Commanders30c6,943$2,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,076.4818044.4%80 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Broncos75c6,730$5,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,713.8815555.5%86 W · 69 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Broncos67c6,729$4,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,216.5323244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4635…9f6fbacked Broncos66c6,632$4,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,231.2475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3458…b5a7backed Broncos72c6,547$4,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,863.098259.8%49 W · 33 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ae5…53c8backed Broncos72c6,185$4,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,730.485143.1%22 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98a3…d61ebacked Broncos72c6,167$4,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,735.4812152.1%63 W · 58 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked Commanders28c5,825$1,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,631.082638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+25.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8a4…9e63backed Broncos74c5,822$4,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.822347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f2…702cbacked Broncos74c5,806$4,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,486.49359.1%55 W · 38 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Broncos69c5,605$3,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,712.575764.9%37 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed Broncos78c5,518$4,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.755472.2%39 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Commanders33c5,410$1,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,810.968446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b22…c59cbacked Broncos72c5,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4004949%24 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70f0…70aabacked Broncos72c5,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4002263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+38%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x383d…a9f2backed Broncos74c4,800$3,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2486349.2%31 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked Broncos72c4,765$3,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,344.857736.4%28 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2000…df78backed Commanders29c4,717$1,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,367.9520851%106 W · 102 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Commanders28c4,702$1,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,316.692520%5 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Broncos77c4,461$3,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.175646.4%26 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e5c…c9eebacked Commanders37c4,456$1,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,635.58366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.