NFL · resolved market
1H Spread: Broncos (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x048876a2a726536dfc7dd7d0b88baf0574eefc2ece48b31f76075c57756e332c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Broncosof Broncos, Commanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Commanders | 51c | 1,541$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.76 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Broncos | 49c | 750$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.5 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Broncos | 43c | 247.5$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.08 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Broncos | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…8091backed Broncos | 53c | 169.18$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…f6a0backed Broncos | 48c | 124.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.9 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Broncos | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Commanders | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Commanders | 53c | 41.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Broncos (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Broncos (-2.5)Broncos won
- Broncos vs. CommandersBroncos won
- Broncos vs. Commanders: 1H MoneylineBroncos won
- Broncos vs. Commanders: 1H O/U 21.5Under won
- Broncos vs. Commanders: O/U 43.5Over won
- Spread: Broncos (-3.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Broncos (-4.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Broncos (-5.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Broncos (-6.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Broncos (-7.5)Commanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.