TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Broncos (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Commandersof Broncos, Commanders
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$355,811
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$369,087

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $355,811 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed Commanders48c190,697$91,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99,162.6617041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Broncos52c160,000$83,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83,20031240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Commanders47c42,451$19,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,499.0527454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed Commanders49c28,928$14,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,753.2118156.9%103 W · 78 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3451…49a5backed Broncos53c21,292$11,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,202837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Broncos52c19,231$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0007255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Commanders46c15,184$7,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,181.8786547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Commanders47c14,973$7,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,935.935850%29 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed Broncos53c12,775$6,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,7718856.8%50 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c6f…89b9backed Broncos53c12,644$6,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,6955756.1%32 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Broncos51c12,355$6,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,301.0522450%112 W · 112 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Commanders45c10,847$4,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,960.1773651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9376…c075backed Broncos55c10,263$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,6002250%11 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Commanders47c9,628$4,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,1411,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Broncos54c9,494$5,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,126.7644652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked Broncos53c9,434$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000.022965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+30.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Commanders48c8,421$4,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,381.7437350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Broncos52c6,666$3,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,432.9924056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Broncos52c6,050$3,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,124.428447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Broncos51c6,000$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,06083147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Commanders1c6,000$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,94011122.5%25 W · 86 L+13.9wins+0.13per pick10cpaid+428.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7bf4…8860backed Broncos53c5,700$3,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0027626.3%20 W · 56 L-7.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-33.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeb4a…4ef5backed Broncos53c4,954$2,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,625.621338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-26.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f8e…b232backed Broncos53c3,289$1,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,743.174641.3%19 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x48be…73a8backed Broncos53c3,019$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6005650%28 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Broncos53c2,830$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50015555.5%86 W · 69 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc869…8a6ebacked Broncos53c2,719$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,450.19657.3%55 W · 41 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Commanders48c2,519$1,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,298.0519651.5%101 W · 95 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Broncos51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0205246.2%24 W · 28 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Broncos51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02026650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Commanders47c1,848$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.4475852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Broncos54c1,713$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.8754451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Broncos54c1,099$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.261,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44bc…c53ebacked Broncos51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5105154.9%28 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Broncos54c925.93$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5834…f0cbbacked Broncos53c845.8$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44518650.5%94 W · 92 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Broncos52c774.98$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.9928556.5%161 W · 124 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa61d…df1abacked Broncos52c576.92$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010555.2%58 W · 47 L+0.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed Broncos52c576.92$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006246.8%29 W · 33 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d48…b9a1backed Broncos54c560$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.43056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+17.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Broncos52c500.02$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.3465048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Broncos57c500$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2852638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76fc…e0bdbacked Commanders49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2555050%25 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84df…e3b8backed Broncos53c500$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbf5…6638backed Broncos53c484.91$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25711637.9%44 W · 72 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e9f…ab58backed Commanders47c471$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.632100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a45…1405backed Broncos53c462.77$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.277749.4%38 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Commanders48c371.17$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.0160049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf515…0805backed Broncos54c370.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004555.6%25 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a25…c24dbacked Broncos53c290.28$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.858143.2%35 W · 46 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04eb…36a7backed Broncos52c288.46$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15019361.7%119 W · 74 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x823d…8091backed Broncos59c222.88$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.55137.3%19 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3103…d804backed Broncos51c215.19$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.751560%9 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe727…5e8dbacked Broncos51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017548%84 W · 91 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8c…e115backed Broncos51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005149%25 W · 26 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+22.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d20…9871backed Broncos52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004456.8%25 W · 19 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+32.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5384…9d80backed Broncos53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Broncos54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016351.5%84 W · 79 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6941…efd5backed Broncos54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013253%70 W · 62 L-0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Commanders48c168$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.636341.9%152 W · 211 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd10…f782backed Broncos52c161.69$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.085062%31 W · 19 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe081…97efbacked Broncos53c157.08$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.251723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-45.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Broncos54c150$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8126857.1%153 W · 115 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68f6…7742backed Broncos53c150$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794837.5%18 W · 30 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Commanders47c147.56$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.2123024.3%56 W · 174 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d0…01a4backed Broncos53c118.87$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639652.1%50 W · 46 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x08b5…5a6ebacked Commanders48c114.58$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.583658.3%21 W · 15 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x37a7…a42bbacked Broncos53c103.77$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556243.5%27 W · 35 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb358…e547backed Broncos53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf70…7d5fbacked Broncos54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547045.7%32 W · 38 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0ed…c5a4backed Broncos53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538037.5%30 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Broncos57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5718245.6%83 W · 99 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4aad…18f4backed Broncos54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507627.6%21 W · 55 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-34.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Commanders17c90$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.783447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Broncos51c84.41$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0577052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf8b…bff8backed Commanders50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407065.7%46 W · 24 L+9.8wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+25.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0edb…8260backed Broncos53c77.36$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414434.1%15 W · 29 L-6.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-33.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb376…f6a0backed Broncos58c68.97$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406647%31 W · 35 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Broncos53c64.15$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3412141.3%50 W · 71 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Broncos53c64$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1341450.5%209 W · 205 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd19e…7419backed Broncos52c57.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0da5…5adfbacked Broncos53c56.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308274.4%61 W · 21 L+8.6wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+16.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x843d…eafdbacked Broncos55c56.44$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.043141.9%13 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Commanders52c54.05$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8735648%171 W · 185 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Broncos54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2718151.9%94 W · 87 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Broncos27c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.415353.6%82 W · 71 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed Commanders48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267352.1%38 W · 35 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3f9…2aa8backed Broncos52c49.45$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7129059.7%173 W · 117 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b17…d5a3backed Broncos52c48.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a9c…598dbacked Broncos55c44.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.551464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b4b…93d5backed Broncos52c40.18$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.782751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+18.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfc4…118ebacked Broncos51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73dc…0f1bbacked Broncos52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2992…e409backed Broncos54c37.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Broncos54c37.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.992653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Commanders53c36.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2532043.8%140 W · 180 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5ad…5a42backed Commanders48c35.42$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.424247.6%20 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd55…c9bfbacked Commanders50c33.93$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.93785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.35per pick50cpaid+61.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5670…6db5backed Broncos53c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+44.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3230…9cfcbacked Commanders47c29$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.372100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.