TailMyPicks
Market

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Broncos (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Commandersof Broncos, Commanders
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,412,221
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,427,239

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,412,221 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 268 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed Commanders53c696,395$365,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330,500.5117041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Broncos47c350,000$164,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164,50013843.5%60 W · 78 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Broncos48c316,990$152,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,102.7953348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Broncos48c293,052$140,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140,644.7147348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked Commanders52c104,167$54,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,000.157951.9%41 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Commanders52c80,000$41,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,399.9931240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Commanders52c58,979$30,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,350.3220755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Commanders52c55,000$28,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,399.9924957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Commanders53c45,000$23,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,249.9916860.7%102 W · 66 L+18.7wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Broncos47c40,846$19,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,281.1786547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Commanders52c33,781$17,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,215.085850%29 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Commanders51c27,688$14,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,613.5673651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f1a…6dc0backed Broncos48c23,000$11,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,0407051.4%36 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Broncos47c20,000$9,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,399.9924652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c81…fce3backed Commanders70c16,124$11,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,845.15250%26 W · 26 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Broncos46c15,533$7,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,144.9910442.3%44 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked Broncos48c15,375$7,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,3802965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+30.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed Commanders53c15,118$8,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,108.4718156.9%103 W · 78 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Commanders53c15,000$7,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,10035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Broncos48c14,227$6,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,8291266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Broncos40c13,843$5,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,556.0868446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Commanders52c13,000$6,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,199.9851352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Commanders52c11,307$5,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,398.9220661.2%126 W · 80 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bf4…8860backed Broncos48c10,500$5,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0157626.3%20 W · 56 L-7.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-33.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Broncos48c10,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,799.9923937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07c8…2696backed Commanders54c9,065$4,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,169.815957.6%34 W · 25 L+7.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Broncos47c9,057$4,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,256.7528447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Commanders54c9,000$4,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,14024053.8%129 W · 111 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Commanders73c8,988$6,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,440.56459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2f…3794backed Broncos44c8,031$3,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,544.398128.4%23 W · 58 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Broncos46c8,000$3,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,68083147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Commanders52c7,160$3,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,436.6219553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Broncos39c7,157$2,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,823.5750242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Broncos49c7,000$3,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4303351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Broncos48c6,248$2,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,993.461,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Broncos47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,35012944.2%57 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Commanders52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,40026547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Broncos47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3508351.8%43 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Broncos46c4,384$2,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,016.676645.5%30 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Commanders53c4,264$2,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,004.157464.9%48 W · 26 L+9.8wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+28.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xeec7…7de8backed Broncos48c4,167$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Broncos47c3,500$1,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,629.9526650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Broncos47c3,116$1,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,464.6424056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Commanders65c3,003$1,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,051.0116955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Commanders53c3,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4107534.7%26 W · 49 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-28.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed Broncos50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-37.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Broncos49c2,878$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40015555.5%86 W · 69 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90f6…48f3backed Broncos50c2,800$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4004146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Broncos48c2,713$1,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,302.2414641.8%61 W · 85 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe832…7abbbacked Broncos48c2,697$1,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300.594257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Commanders52c2,676$1,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,284.4822450%112 W · 112 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Broncos46c2,449$1,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,126.4639447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Broncos47c2,428$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.2256852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Commanders49c2,326$1,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,197.7675852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Commanders5c2,193$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,073.1711122.5%25 W · 86 L+13.9wins+0.13per pick10cpaid+428.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x27df…e67cbacked Commanders54c2,143$1,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.59450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Commanders76c2,113$1,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.6320757.5%119 W · 88 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x09f0…1e82backed Commanders53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9402454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+72.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Broncos48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96010142.6%43 W · 58 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Broncos47c1,800$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84615044.7%67 W · 83 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd5c…8ae8backed Broncos48c1,625$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7803138.7%12 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-22%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa313…e124backed Commanders54c1,574$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.0716648.2%80 W · 86 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Broncos27c1,562$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.778650%43 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Broncos48c1,553$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.8631450%157 W · 157 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Broncos49c1,531$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75012550.4%63 W · 62 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd8a4…75c1backed Broncos36c1,520$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.118658.1%108 W · 78 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…f8bebacked Commanders53c1,502$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.4419459.3%115 W · 79 L+15.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+15.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4124…8af2backed Commanders53c1,500$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7053943.6%17 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed Commanders53c1,462$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.045756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Broncos28c1,323$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.748847.5%232 W · 256 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8d7…c17bbacked Commanders54c1,300$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60311759.8%70 W · 47 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Broncos47c1,230$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.265048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a50…c1e5backed Broncos48c1,115$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.661741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Commanders53c1,115$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.1732050.9%163 W · 157 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14cf…0856backed Commanders54c1,112$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.048451.2%43 W · 41 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Commanders56c1,100$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.259949.5%49 W · 50 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4392…68c3backed Commanders74c1,068$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.71366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Broncos52c1,057$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.7320039.5%79 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Broncos37c1,046$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.57044.3%31 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1bc…9dc9backed Broncos48c1,042$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005139.2%20 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Commanders51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4904542.2%19 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Broncos49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4903638.9%14 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-26.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Commanders50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5005754.4%31 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68db…e12bbacked Commanders58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42013435.8%48 W · 86 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed Commanders50c992$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.0814035%49 W · 91 L-12.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4862…1a17backed Broncos53c948.49$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.71952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+73.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ee0…5233backed Broncos47c934.04$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4391650%8 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf068…6184backed Commanders53c867.92$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.923366.7%22 W · 11 L+5.6wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+34.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xed78…f62bbacked Broncos52c865.38$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4502343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb376…f6a0backed Broncos42c849.91$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.626647%31 W · 35 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbde…a050backed Broncos49c816.33$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4009940.4%40 W · 59 L-8.4wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ae4…1df2backed Commanders53c800.04$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.433250%16 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Broncos47c778.25$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.9636341.9%152 W · 211 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Commanders53c750$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.526648.9%130 W · 136 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Broncos47c745$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.1539754.4%216 W · 181 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Broncos48c710.42$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34122142.1%93 W · 128 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed Commanders49c705.88$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36017348%83 W · 90 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Broncos51c686.27$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3507361.6%45 W · 28 L+7.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+27.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Broncos48c658.11$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.897143.7%31 W · 40 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Commanders54c600$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27618744.9%84 W · 103 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.