NFL · resolved market
Spread: Broncos (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf675a709b37bde27c566472ddb12a322d90d6081fb928f89e90698a85744948
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Commandersof Broncos, Commanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,412,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,427,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,412,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 268 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb744…5210backed Commanders | 53c | 696,395$365,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330,500.51 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Broncos | 47c | 350,000$164,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164,500 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Broncos | 48c | 316,990$152,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152,102.79 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Broncos | 48c | 293,052$140,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140,644.71 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…d24dbacked Commanders | 52c | 104,167$54,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,000.15 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Commanders | 52c | 80,000$41,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,399.99 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Commanders | 52c | 58,979$30,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,350.32 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Commanders | 52c | 55,000$28,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,399.99 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Commanders | 53c | 45,000$23,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,249.99 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Broncos | 47c | 40,846$19,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,281.17 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Commanders | 52c | 33,781$17,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,215.08 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Commanders | 51c | 27,688$14,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,613.56 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1a…6dc0backed Broncos | 48c | 23,000$11,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,040 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Broncos | 47c | 20,000$9,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,399.99 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…fce3backed Commanders | 70c | 16,124$11,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,845.1 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Broncos | 46c | 15,533$7,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,144.99 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…a0fbbacked Broncos | 48c | 15,375$7,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,380 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Commanders | 53c | 15,118$8,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,108.47 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Commanders | 53c | 15,000$7,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,100 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Broncos | 48c | 14,227$6,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,829 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Broncos | 40c | 13,843$5,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,556.08 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Commanders | 52c | 13,000$6,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,199.98 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Commanders | 52c | 11,307$5,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,398.92 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf4…8860backed Broncos | 48c | 10,500$5,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,015 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Broncos | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,799.99 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…2696backed Commanders | 54c | 9,065$4,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,169.81 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +7.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Broncos | 47c | 9,057$4,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,256.75 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Commanders | 54c | 9,000$4,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,140 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa21…1438backed Commanders | 73c | 8,988$6,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,440.5 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2f…3794backed Broncos | 44c | 8,031$3,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,544.39 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Broncos | 46c | 8,000$3,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,680 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Commanders | 52c | 7,160$3,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,436.62 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +16.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Broncos | 39c | 7,157$2,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,823.57 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…28b4backed Broncos | 49c | 7,000$3,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,430 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Broncos | 48c | 6,248$2,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,993.46 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Broncos | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Commanders | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed Broncos | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Broncos | 46c | 4,384$2,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,016.67 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…58bfbacked Commanders | 53c | 4,264$2,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,004.15 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +9.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…7de8backed Broncos | 48c | 4,167$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Broncos | 47c | 3,500$1,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,629.95 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Broncos | 47c | 3,116$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,464.64 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Commanders | 65c | 3,003$1,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.01 | 169 | 55%93 W · 76 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Commanders | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed Broncos | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Broncos | 49c | 2,878$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…48f3backed Broncos | 50c | 2,800$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Broncos | 48c | 2,713$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302.24 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Broncos | 48c | 2,697$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300.59 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Commanders | 52c | 2,676$1,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,284.48 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Broncos | 46c | 2,449$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.46 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Broncos | 47c | 2,428$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.22 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Commanders | 49c | 2,326$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.76 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Commanders | 5c | 2,193$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,073.17 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | +13.9wins | +0.13per pick | 10cpaid | +428.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Commanders | 54c | 2,143$1,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Commanders | 76c | 2,113$1,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.63 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09f0…1e82backed Commanders | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Broncos | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 101 | 42.6%43 W · 58 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Broncos | 47c | 1,800$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…8ae8backed Broncos | 48c | 1,625$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Commanders | 54c | 1,574$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.07 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Broncos | 27c | 1,562$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.77 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Broncos | 48c | 1,553$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.86 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Broncos | 49c | 1,531$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…75c1backed Broncos | 36c | 1,520$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.1 | 186 | 58.1%108 W · 78 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Commanders | 53c | 1,502$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.44 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…8af2backed Commanders | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed Commanders | 53c | 1,462$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.04 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Broncos | 28c | 1,323$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.7 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Commanders | 54c | 1,300$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Broncos | 47c | 1,230$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.2 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a50…c1e5backed Broncos | 48c | 1,115$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.66 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Commanders | 53c | 1,115$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.17 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14cf…0856backed Commanders | 54c | 1,112$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.04 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Commanders | 56c | 1,100$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.25 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4392…68c3backed Commanders | 74c | 1,068$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Broncos | 52c | 1,057$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.73 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Broncos | 37c | 1,046$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.5 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bc…9dc9backed Broncos | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Commanders | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Broncos | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Commanders | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Commanders | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Commanders | 50c | 992$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.08 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4862…1a17backed Broncos | 53c | 948.49$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.7 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee0…5233backed Broncos | 47c | 934.04$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf068…6184backed Commanders | 53c | 867.92$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.92 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xed78…f62bbacked Broncos | 52c | 865.38$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…f6a0backed Broncos | 42c | 849.91$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.62 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbde…a050backed Broncos | 49c | 816.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…1df2backed Commanders | 53c | 800.04$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.43 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Broncos | 47c | 778.25$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.96 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Commanders | 53c | 750$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.5 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Broncos | 47c | 745$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.15 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Broncos | 48c | 710.42$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341 | 221 | 42.1%93 W · 128 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Commanders | 49c | 705.88$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Broncos | 51c | 686.27$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Broncos | 48c | 658.11$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.89 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Commanders | 54c | 600$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Broncos (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Broncos (-2.5)Broncos won
- 1H Spread: Broncos (-3.5)Broncos won
- Broncos vs. CommandersBroncos won
- Broncos vs. Commanders: 1H MoneylineBroncos won
- Broncos vs. Commanders: 1H O/U 21.5Under won
- Broncos vs. Commanders: O/U 43.5Over won
- Spread: Broncos (-3.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Broncos (-4.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Broncos (-5.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Broncos (-7.5)Commanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.