TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Broncos vs. Commanders: O/U 43.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$346,900
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$349,174

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $346,900 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1496…a429backed Over49c100,000$49,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,999.9927454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Over49c58,453$28,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,757.898747.1%41 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Under51c55,226$28,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,004.6424957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Under51c43,371$22,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,119.3453348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Under51c40,000$20,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,399.9924652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Under51c35,504$18,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,106.8311445.6%52 W · 62 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Under51c31,442$16,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,085.1219553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over49c29,519$14,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,054.6947348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Over72c15,904$11,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,453.826459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over51c14,329$7,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,038.6186547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under41c11,694$4,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,812.2231543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over48c10,999$5,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,673.9324056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x27df…e67cbacked Over50c10,010$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,009.76450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over54c8,947$4,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,115.0973651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under37c8,714$3,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,192.0950242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Over48c7,182$3,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,752.7537350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Over49c5,931$2,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,024.8110650.9%54 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked Under53c5,680$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0006540%26 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Under49c5,450$2,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,666.8368446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Over49c5,417$2,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,762.7314154.6%77 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Over49c5,102$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,602.0415555.5%86 W · 69 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over47c5,025$2,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,663.0675852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Under55c5,006$2,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,733.543125.8%8 W · 23 L-6.3wins-0.20per pick46cpaid-54.2%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,599.9835848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed Under52c4,471$2,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3395756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d83…d3f2backed Under52c3,250$1,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6901752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Under52c3,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5607534.7%26 W · 49 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-28.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2000…df78backed Over38c2,673$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,666.0920851%106 W · 102 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9146…5f30backed Under51c2,500$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2752528%7 W · 18 L-4.9wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-47.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over49c2,178$1,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,111.1531450%157 W · 157 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Under52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0405246.2%24 W · 28 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1bc…9dc9backed Under52c1,923$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005139.2%20 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over48c1,770$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.571,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under51c1,712$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.9411139.6%44 W · 67 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa313…e124backed Over50c1,700$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85016648.2%80 W · 86 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Over49c1,657$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.613560%81 W · 54 L+14.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5672…5019backed Over49c1,531$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.615141.2%21 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Under52c1,500$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78013752.6%72 W · 65 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under51c1,250$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.526648.9%130 W · 136 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Over49c1,226$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.639242.6%167 W · 225 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under51c923.08$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.4665048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Over49c918.37$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.3710547.6%50 W · 55 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3103…d804backed Under50c820$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4101560%9 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over43c791$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.4164747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under40c781.12$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.1160049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Over16c738.7$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.2528151.6%145 W · 136 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Under48c609.44$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.317044.3%31 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under49c604$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.2435648%171 W · 185 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25011640.5%47 W · 69 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over47c402.79$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.5653253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6077…f4f4backed Under49c397.92$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.983641.7%15 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4d0…91acbacked Under52c389.56$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.5712446.8%58 W · 66 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3b9…9ce4backed Under52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008639.5%34 W · 52 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over48c368.87$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.3356852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Under52c326.92$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17011740.2%47 W · 70 L-10.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over48c315$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.855345%249 W · 304 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over48c312.49$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.491,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…f8bebacked Under52c312.49$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.4919459.3%115 W · 79 L+15.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+15.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Under32c300$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9721227.8%59 W · 153 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-24.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Under50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010948.6%53 W · 56 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Over49c299$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.3214641.8%61 W · 85 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Over49c286.87$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.325744.4%114 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8c9…b445backed Under36c264.03$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.06714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-52.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f4f…6dddbacked Over50c250$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1252450%12 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Under51c225.18$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.8422450%112 W · 112 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under42c223.2$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9532043.8%140 W · 180 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Under50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10031540.6%128 W · 187 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0298…93c4backed Over52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3128337.8%107 W · 176 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1013…87d5backed Under52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-35.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x387c…9188backed Under52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004463.6%28 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Under65c190$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.1318245.6%83 W · 99 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbecd…9df4backed Under52c175$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9114347.6%68 W · 75 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over48c162$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.8848847.5%232 W · 256 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x823d…8091backed Over66c150.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.745137.3%19 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Under51c150$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.524243.4%105 W · 137 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Under30c141$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6512954.3%70 W · 59 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb376…f6a0backed Over38c131.83$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.836647%31 W · 35 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6878…bec2backed Under46c130.43$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605151%26 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Under52c130$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.659453.7%319 W · 275 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08b5…5a6ebacked Over49c112.24$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.243658.3%21 W · 15 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb89…46f1backed Under35c108.21$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.884542.2%19 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x480e…a98bbacked Under52c106.71$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc65…49d8backed Under55c104.38$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.15137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.9wins-0.30per pick37cpaid-84%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x397d…794fbacked Over49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517147.9%34 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5116045%72 W · 88 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacbe…85d4backed Over50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503948.7%19 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Over65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.51060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f1f…0b36backed Under52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527339.7%29 W · 44 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b3f…4f9cbacked Under52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011458.8%67 W · 47 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Under52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017047.1%80 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0ed…c5a4backed Over50c94$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478037.5%30 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under48c83$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8413959%82 W · 57 L+12.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd774…82cdbacked Over50c81.4$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.713339.8%53 W · 80 L-10.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Over48c80$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4241450.5%209 W · 205 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed57…e0a0backed Under52c79$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.137955.7%44 W · 35 L+8.3wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+30.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Under52c78.25$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8116551.5%85 W · 80 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under52c76.92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4019651.5%101 W · 95 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x680b…276abacked Under42c76.9$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.551442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b74…b58fbacked Over49c75$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.631181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick62cpaid+29.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Under38c70.64$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.184551.1%23 W · 22 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.