TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Cardinals vs. Buccaneers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Buccaneersof Cardinals, Buccaneers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,475,933
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,528,959

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,475,933 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 604 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed Cardinals37c345,453$126,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126,668.8217041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Buccaneers63c200,010$126,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,003.74955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Buccaneers64c192,630$123,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,667.7544652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Buccaneers63c120,000$75,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,40013843.5%60 W · 78 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Cardinals35c90,000$31,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,50016836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Cardinals37c80,167$29,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,661.7919553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Cardinals33c77,801$25,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,467.9910026%26 W · 74 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Buccaneers74c69,385$51,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,157.6573651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Buccaneers65c61,944$40,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,576.6130043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Buccaneers64c61,334$39,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,843.0847348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Cardinals35c50,000$17,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,5009359.1%55 W · 38 L+10.2wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Cardinals36c45,000$16,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,199.995236.5%19 W · 33 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Buccaneers64c34,287$22,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,206.311,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Cardinals18c33,333$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,999.939245.7%42 W · 50 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Cardinals36c30,000$10,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,80011168.5%76 W · 35 L+18.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+34.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Cardinals35c29,617$10,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,239.2220755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4297…ea39backed Buccaneers64c25,000$16,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,999.996100%6 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+79.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x390a…1328backed Cardinals35c25,000$8,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,749.9650%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4c2f…3794backed Cardinals12c24,796$3,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,045.128128.4%23 W · 58 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Cardinals34c22,221$7,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,666.234634.8%16 W · 30 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Buccaneers67c19,778$13,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,599.5653348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Cardinals35c18,112$6,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,351.9283147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Buccaneers69c15,378$10,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,692.6975852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Buccaneers63c11,679$7,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,321.1524652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0630…d067backed Buccaneers65c10,830$7,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,785.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Buccaneers64c10,000$6,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,599.995431.5%17 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Cardinals22c9,818$2,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,136.4150242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Cardinals22c9,648$2,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,142.64944.9%22 W · 27 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Cardinals40c9,000$3,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5709754.6%53 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Buccaneers65c8,844$5,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,095.530743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed Cardinals37c8,432$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1205756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x809c…84b9backed Buccaneers63c8,300$5,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,070.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Cardinals1c8,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804515.6%7 W · 38 L+6.1wins+0.13per pick2cpaid+931.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Buccaneers63c7,500$4,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,77514450%72 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Cardinals18c7,387$1,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,341.4311643.1%50 W · 66 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Cardinals32c7,241$2,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,293.1226547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Cardinals12c7,019$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.3519235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Cardinals15c6,957$1,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071.6268446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Buccaneers62c6,896$4,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,637.0131854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0371…92bbbacked Cardinals38c6,300$2,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,394366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Buccaneers65c6,030$3,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,101.1756852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8c…9390backed Buccaneers64c6,000$3,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1607558.7%44 W · 31 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Cardinals36c5,926$2,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1223560%21 W · 14 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+24.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x28b1…5a3fbacked Buccaneers64c5,810$3,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,096.469359.1%55 W · 38 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Cardinals34c5,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e22…3993backed Cardinals38c5,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9001241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c81…fce3backed Buccaneers63c5,000$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,849.995250%26 W · 26 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Cardinals36c4,400$1,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,565.8326648.9%130 W · 136 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Buccaneers66c4,350$2,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,47922349.8%111 W · 112 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Cardinals36c4,267$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,535.017248.6%35 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Cardinals20c3,963$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.9416344.8%73 W · 90 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb40…a284backed Cardinals38c3,600$1,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,354.4114443.8%63 W · 81 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Cardinals33c3,430$1,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1321735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x856f…e1d7backed Cardinals41c3,390$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,389.91154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19fd…5838backed Cardinals35c3,333$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.551127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-47.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Cardinals36c3,333$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.884847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Cardinals18c3,308$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.98532.9%28 W · 57 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x462d…ce9bbacked Buccaneers64c3,125$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1251233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-41.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0dcf…d95bbacked Buccaneers64c3,093$1,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,120.32137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-87.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Cardinals35c3,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05011544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Cardinals37c3,000$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1104330.2%13 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x09f0…1e82backed Cardinals32c3,000$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9502454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+72.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f92…983dbacked Buccaneers63c3,000$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1102100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+77.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Cardinals35c3,000$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.487732.5%25 W · 52 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Buccaneers77c2,867$2,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.2931056.8%176 W · 134 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7509…4b9dbacked Buccaneers66c2,830$1,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.33630.6%11 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf42d…808dbacked Cardinals37c2,610$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Cardinals34c2,500$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85019240.1%77 W · 115 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x80f0…1ebebacked Buccaneers64c2,443$1,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.922864.3%18 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x724f…4c20backed Cardinals37c2,400$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Cardinals20c2,373$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.6223850.8%121 W · 117 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Cardinals1c2,333$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.334311.6%7 W · 424 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Cardinals2c2,250$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5980%0 W · 98 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04eb…36a7backed Buccaneers68c2,206$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.3319361.7%119 W · 74 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Cardinals23c2,098$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.2516254.9%89 W · 73 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Cardinals15c2,056$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.925646.4%26 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x447e…9710backed Cardinals34c2,026$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.651323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.25per pick49cpaid-56.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x957a…977ebacked Buccaneers64c2,010$1,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+80.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bf4…8860backed Cardinals35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7007626.3%20 W · 56 L-7.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-33.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaf8f…1ee2backed Buccaneers63c2,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7401100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked Buccaneers65c2,000$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7003961.5%24 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Cardinals34c2,000$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67011452.6%60 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f26…be98backed Buccaneers64c1,954$1,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.651764.7%11 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc50…c49dbacked Cardinals37c1,700$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Cardinals37c1,684$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6232263.6%14 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Buccaneers60c1,660$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.765939%23 W · 36 L-9.4wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-34.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Buccaneers58c1,628$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b21…7da2backed Cardinals37c1,600$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3288…d9c7backed Buccaneers64c1,563$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.5580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7010…76f0backed Cardinals37c1,514$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Cardinals34c1,507$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.447530.7%23 W · 52 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Buccaneers59c1,500$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61039242.6%167 W · 225 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Buccaneers62c1,500$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.932540%10 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Cardinals1c1,435$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.351486.8%10 W · 138 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick2cpaid+296.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Buccaneers65c1,400$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49036246.7%169 W · 193 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3d5…3df2backed Cardinals37c1,400$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9031…abfcbacked Buccaneers65c1,389$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.15666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdde2…db05backed Cardinals36c1,389$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x834e…78c4backed Cardinals37c1,300$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.98333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fae…3488backed Buccaneers67c1,256$844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.831030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-48.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.