NFL · resolved market
Spread: Buccaneers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73eb539f3a22f40168e48d2260052ab5a7684eafa54f1f8f179ea2e6f676d682
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cardinalsof Buccaneers, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca4d…eafdbacked Cardinals | 55c | 23,116$12,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,402.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71fc…8f17backed Buccaneers | 45c | 12,567$5,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,655.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Buccaneers | 47c | 11,407$5,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,378.15 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaba…8d83backed Buccaneers | 45c | 10,549$4,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,747.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Buccaneers | 48c | 6,949$3,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,335.31 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Cardinals | 55c | 5,483$2,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,492.09 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed Cardinals | 52c | 5,035$2,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,416.98 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb744…5210backed Cardinals | 54c | 5,020$2,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,309 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Cardinals | 51c | 5,007$2,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,453.55 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Buccaneers | 45c | 3,439$1,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,547.55 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…58bfbacked Cardinals | 52c | 1,878$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.54 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +9.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Buccaneers | 48c | 657.62$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.13 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Buccaneers | 46c | 507.41$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.3 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Cardinals | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cardinals | 54c | 495.9$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.11 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Buccaneers | 47c | 393$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.17 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Buccaneers | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…9df4backed Buccaneers | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Cardinals | 51c | 81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Cardinals | 52c | 79.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Buccaneers | 46c | 38.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Cardinals | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Cardinals | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Cardinals | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cardinals | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Buccaneers (-4.5)this page
- Cardinals vs. BuccaneersBuccaneers won
- Cardinals vs. Buccaneers: 1H MoneylineBuccaneers won
- Cardinals vs. Buccaneers: O/U 36.5Over won
- Cardinals vs. Buccaneers: O/U 43.5Under won
- Cardinals vs. Buccaneers: O/U 44.5Under won
- Cardinals vs. Buccaneers: O/U 45.5Under won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)Buccaneers won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5)Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.