NFL · resolved market
Cardinals vs. Buccaneers: O/U 43.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x171f7a39b499d022bc1fcb8a7a013a77b3f480acd661ca3cee18700ec502f8f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfeb8…0f47backed Over | 55c | 23,748$13,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,061.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaba…8d83backed Under | 45c | 13,069$5,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,187.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71fc…8f17backed Under | 45c | 10,679$4,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,873.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Over | 55c | 3,046$1,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,675.3 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 44c | 2,500$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 59c | 1,948$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.32 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 41c | 1,120$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.8 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Under | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 56c | 850.84$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.18 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 55c | 800$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 56c | 335$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.6 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 45c | 252.94$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.83 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 41c | 168$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.12 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 11c | 111.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3f…4f9cbacked Over | 53c | 94.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 45c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…429fbacked Under | 47c | 27.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cardinals vs. Buccaneers: O/U 43.5this page
- Cardinals vs. BuccaneersBuccaneers won
- Cardinals vs. Buccaneers: 1H MoneylineBuccaneers won
- Cardinals vs. Buccaneers: O/U 36.5Over won
- Cardinals vs. Buccaneers: O/U 44.5Under won
- Cardinals vs. Buccaneers: O/U 45.5Under won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)Buccaneers won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5)Cardinals won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-4.5)Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.