NFL · resolved market
Bears vs. Eagles: O/U 43.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc54ba6ecb07005173406dbc7592073276963e7d33ccdb50bbd8c5567d215bed1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed Over | 50c | 30,000$14,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,950 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Over | 49c | 30,000$14,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,699.97 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 51c | 17,667$9,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,656.83 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 17,395$8,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,697.57 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 11,647$5,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,766.94 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 6,000$3,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,940 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Under | 51c | 4,530$2,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,219.65 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Over | 50c | 1,400$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 46c | 925.93$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked Over | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b9…9ce4backed Under | 53c | 641.51$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.51 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4a…2215backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85a5…6721backed Under | 51c | 445.1$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.1 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…2aa8backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 290 | 59.7%173 W · 117 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 50c | 345$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4702…457fbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…8199backed Over | 50c | 108.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0d…081bbacked Over | 50c | 108$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f79…c16cbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Over | 48c | 92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…c0d4backed Over | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Under | 52c | 86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 103 | 56.3%58 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…b20fbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90cc…01a9backed Over | 50c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 51.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…2413backed Over | 50c | 39.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x137b…2fd5backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bears vs. Eagles: O/U 43.5this page
- 1H Spread: Eagles (-3.5)Bears won
- Bears vs. EaglesBears won
- Bears vs. Eagles: 1H MoneylineBears won
- Bears vs. Eagles: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Bears vs. Eagles: O/U 36.5Over won
- Bears vs. Eagles: O/U 39.5Under won
- Bears vs. Eagles: O/U 44.5Under won
- Spread: Eagles (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Eagles (-3.5)Bears won
- Spread: Eagles (-4.5)Bears won
- Spread: Eagles (-5.5)Bears won
- Spread: Eagles (-6.5)Bears won
- Spread: Eagles (-7.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.