College Football · resolved market
Spread: UNLV (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x997ff05301672d88a4a0405e147b37d95f133c70069065f0cf9ff1bd9846f9f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UNLVof UNLV, Nevada Wolf Pack
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed UNLV | 49c | 7,817$3,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,958.5 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 51c | 5,379$2,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,731.9 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed UNLV | 49c | 4,515$2,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,319.69 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 50c | 3,800$1,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,908.87 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf93b…47e7backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 52c | 2,885$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 51c | 1,633$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.82 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed UNLV | 49c | 1,445$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.56 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 50c | 1,133$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.49 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked UNLV | 49c | 976$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.76 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 50c | 834.43$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.08 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed UNLV | 49c | 668$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.68 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed UNLV | 52c | 500$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…6137backed UNLV | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked UNLV | 50c | 340$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 51c | 175.18$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.27 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed UNLV | 49c | 157.08$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.6 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…129ebacked UNLV | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed UNLV | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed UNLV | 50c | 68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 49c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked UNLV | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked UNLV | 51c | 49.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 244 | 36.9%90 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x137b…2fd5backed UNLV | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: UNLV (-7.5)this page
- Spread: UNLV (-8.5)UNLV won
- Spread: UNLV (-9.5)UNLV won
- UNLV vs. Nevada Wolf PackUNLV won
- UNLV vs. Nevada Wolf Pack: 1H MoneylineUNLV won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.