College Football · resolved market
Spread: UNLV (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffe9fc7ced81c515aad7e64bf6f157211100d529465488f7400245bb605ddb40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UNLVof UNLV, Nevada Wolf Pack
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed UNLV | 49c | 5,387$2,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,725.22 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,650 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 50c | 2,027$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.64 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 52c | 1,670$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.38 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed UNLV | 47c | 1,416$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.48 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked UNLV | 47c | 948$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.44 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed UNLV | 47c | 921.28$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.79 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 56c | 502.18$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 134 | 44%59 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked UNLV | 44c | 380.18$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.9 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 50c | 278.43$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.43 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed UNLV | 47c | 260$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.8 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked UNLV | 47c | 192$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.76 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed UNLV | 48c | 165.81$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed UNLV | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 50c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: UNLV (-8.5)this page
- Spread: UNLV (-7.5)UNLV won
- Spread: UNLV (-9.5)UNLV won
- UNLV vs. Nevada Wolf PackUNLV won
- UNLV vs. Nevada Wolf Pack: 1H MoneylineUNLV won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.