College Football · resolved market
Spread: Hawaii (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b6cd00fa1945661dd3fd444e7b0784360d70825cddb343be54571b3c02b3e00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawaiiof Hawaii, Wyoming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $151,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $158,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe73e…74febacked Hawaii | 53c | 88,655$46,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,668.87 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Wyoming | 47c | 49,344$23,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,272.49 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Wyoming | 47c | 21,081$9,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,908.27 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wyoming | 49c | 13,979$6,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,914.74 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Hawaii | 49c | 12,292$6,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,269.06 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Wyoming | 47c | 10,278$4,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,830.66 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Wyoming | 51c | 9,000$4,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,560 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Hawaii | 49c | 8,909$4,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,513.43 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Hawaii | 50c | 7,926$3,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,931.04 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Wyoming | 51c | 7,500$3,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,824.99 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed Wyoming | 47c | 6,712$3,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,154.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Hawaii | 51c | 6,488$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,187.61 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed Wyoming | 50c | 3,769$1,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,884.37 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Hawaii | 50c | 3,399$1,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,705.38 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Wyoming | 48c | 3,377$1,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,621.17 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Hawaii | 52c | 3,371$1,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,618.29 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Wyoming | 49c | 2,395$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165.49 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Wyoming | 50c | 2,300$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Wyoming | 51c | 1,764$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.64 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Hawaii | 50c | 1,560$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Wyoming | 47c | 1,502$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.94 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Wyoming | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Wyoming | 50c | 1,494$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d8…ad91backed Hawaii | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…b176backed Hawaii | 53c | 857.51$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.03 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Wyoming | 48c | 853.94$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.59 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Wyoming | 49c | 847.76$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.97 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…cf77backed Hawaii | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Hawaii | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Hawaii | 51c | 245.1$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.1 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…bec2backed Hawaii | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…a0e7backed Wyoming | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Hawaii | 49c | 184.02$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.85 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Wyoming | 51c | 176.47$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Wyoming | 49c | 123$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.37 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Wyoming | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed Hawaii | 49c | 90.36$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Hawaii | 50c | 89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…6ea7backed Wyoming | 49c | 88.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Wyoming | 58c | 83.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…b3e8backed Hawaii | 51c | 82.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Wyoming | 49c | 79.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Hawaii | 49c | 59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Hawaii | 52c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Wyoming | 48c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Hawaii | 49c | 54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Wyoming | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 269 | 39.8%107 W · 162 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Wyoming | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Hawaii | 50c | 22.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Wyoming | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 244 | 36.9%90 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…78b5backed Hawaii | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x137b…2fd5backed Hawaii | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Hawaii | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawaii (-7.5)this page
- O/U 44.5Under won
- Spread: Hawaii (-10.5)Hawaii won
- Spread: Hawaii (-8.5)Hawaii won
- Wyoming vs. HawaiiHawaii won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.