College Football · resolved market
Spread: Hawaii (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e86f97de7b5c34d5cbac3ef309d339c0fb4778174a8485174c177becc992d0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawaiiof Hawaii, Wyoming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed Wyoming | 54c | 19,176$10,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,416.9 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Hawaii | 46c | 17,059$7,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,130.17 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Hawaii | 49c | 3,127$1,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,593.53 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wyoming | 53c | 2,366$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,252.96 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Hawaii | 34c | 2,271$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.06 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…e33ebacked Hawaii | 51c | 1,569$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.63 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Wyoming | 49c | 1,066$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.21 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Wyoming | 53c | 849$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.97 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Wyoming | 56c | 395.04$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 134 | 44%59 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Wyoming | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Wyoming | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Hawaii | 45c | 181.82$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Hawaii | 46c | 120$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Wyoming | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Hawaii | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Hawaii | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5f…4a49backed Hawaii | 33c | 95.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Hawaii | 51c | 42.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawaii (-8.5)this page
- O/U 44.5Under won
- Spread: Hawaii (-10.5)Hawaii won
- Spread: Hawaii (-7.5)Hawaii won
- Wyoming vs. HawaiiHawaii won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.