TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bulls vs. Cavaliers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cavaliersof Bulls, Cavaliers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$879,484
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$978,128

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $879,484 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2129…4222backed Bulls53c53,963$28,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,402.7947448.7%231 W · 243 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Bulls58c41,388$23,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,905.847144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5224…0de8backed Cavaliers47c40,119$18,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,264.15658.9%33 W · 23 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Bulls25c36,703$9,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,287.2336148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Cavaliers69c29,076$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,076.0934062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d0f…a318backed Bulls61c28,884$17,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,666.681241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4c8…fed1backed Bulls24c27,000$6,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,480.013748.6%18 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x220c…43c8backed Cavaliers75c27,000$20,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,7507149.3%35 W · 36 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers62c15,324$9,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,865.338,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Cavaliers76c13,158$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,157.8948448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cd1…da1cbacked Bulls25c12,500$3,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,12540%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Cavaliers74c10,504$7,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,695.9244459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Bulls1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bulls40c9,627$3,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,857.622,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Cavaliers46c9,461$4,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,079.326038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Bulls25c9,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,25020253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6734…2e18backed Cavaliers76c8,985$6,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,156.437459.5%44 W · 30 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Cavaliers30c8,970$2,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,285.6318536.8%68 W · 117 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Cavaliers43c7,816$3,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,484.5748046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Cavaliers51c6,895$3,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,354.11,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Cavaliers56c6,012$3,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,616.634645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c1c…a0a4backed Bulls25c5,746$1,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,436.57739%30 W · 47 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-23.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Bulls26c5,666$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.0712334.1%42 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60cd…a1b6backed Cavaliers52c5,621$2,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,712.58251.2%42 W · 40 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Cavaliers75c5,419$4,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,329.9269852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Bulls24c5,300$1,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,28224330.9%75 W · 168 L-11.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Bulls26c5,100$1,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,315.51,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x066e…ceb2backed Bulls61c4,890$2,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,995.445339.6%21 W · 32 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Bulls55c4,713$2,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,576.181,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Cavaliers74c4,694$3,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,220.5595049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Bulls32c4,668$1,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,514.185742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Cavaliers69c4,590$3,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,418.7316446.3%76 W · 88 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked Cavaliers75c4,400$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,10011558.3%67 W · 48 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc550…353fbacked Cavaliers75c4,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0006636.4%24 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Cavaliers76c3,947$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.3743051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Cavaliers76c3,500$2,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84031347%147 W · 166 L-14.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa0a…d070backed Bulls55c3,459$1,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,904.47633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-42.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Bulls25c3,275$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.5748944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Cavaliers51c3,211$1,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,569.851,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8180…208bbacked Cavaliers71c3,107$2,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.169652.1%50 W · 46 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Bulls28c3,000$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8251,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebf6…c629backed Cavaliers46c2,906$1,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,579.715855.2%32 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Cavaliers37c2,778$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,757.781,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ff2…49febacked Bulls35c2,710$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93524634.6%85 W · 161 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x405f…45cebacked Cavaliers66c2,628$1,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.652250%11 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Bulls40c2,597$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,026.3981529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked Cavaliers64c2,500$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90029458.5%172 W · 122 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Bulls47c2,316$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.961,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc6…c936backed Bulls39c2,302$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90015547.1%73 W · 82 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Bulls9c2,222$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9839018.2%71 W · 319 L+27.6wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+62.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7fa0…7894backed Cavaliers43c2,200$943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.841233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-41.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Bulls25c2,100$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.9919441.2%80 W · 114 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60cc…f0dfbacked Bulls50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010852.8%57 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Bulls6c2,000$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.4527917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Bulls18c1,917$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.231,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0de0…0884backed Bulls47c1,869$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8853154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked Bulls70c1,825$1,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,272.745855.2%32 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-3.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0432…1660backed Bulls69c1,799$1,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,244.443345.5%15 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcea6…67adbacked Bulls59c1,695$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00028448.2%137 W · 147 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b19…98f5backed Bulls73c1,647$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198.822725.9%7 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Cavaliers73c1,610$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.839344.1%41 W · 52 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f85…7e17backed Bulls63c1,608$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.356656.1%37 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+85.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Bulls37c1,517$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.2185344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Cavaliers75c1,505$1,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.3325554.1%138 W · 117 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdea…6951backed Bulls25c1,412$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.0620434.8%71 W · 133 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Cavaliers45c1,351$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.051,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb43…9d70backed Cavaliers75c1,333$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.338936%32 W · 57 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Bulls34c1,324$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45050838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d46…5657backed Bulls74c1,272$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.882152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bulls24c1,221$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.989,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Bulls49c1,214$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.0668542.6%292 W · 393 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Bulls26c1,200$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31216633.7%56 W · 110 L-11.6wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Cavaliers75c1,200$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30043247.5%205 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2800…2081backed Bulls43c1,165$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.853951.3%20 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec8b…152bbacked Cavaliers75c1,142$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.4115945.9%73 W · 86 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed Cavaliers45c1,111$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.1115244.1%67 W · 85 L-14.4wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-18.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfbc7…186fbacked Bulls26c1,089$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.1210933.9%37 W · 72 L+0.4wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7a4…0ea6backed Bulls38c1,040$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3977241.7%30 W · 42 L-6.8wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-27.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Cavaliers75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.0175347.5%358 W · 395 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Bulls1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Cavaliers75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25023644.1%104 W · 132 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Bulls36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36044337.9%168 W · 275 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7a7…d3abbacked Bulls64c1,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64020034%68 W · 132 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+28.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3c2…26aabacked Cavaliers62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3803562.9%22 W · 13 L+4.6wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x467e…4343backed Bulls25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503630.6%11 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Bulls24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24061835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9534…1fe8backed Cavaliers74c999.96$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.9926247.7%125 W · 137 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x019d…2b01backed Bulls38c991.22$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.2729037.9%110 W · 180 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa83b…0e4abacked Bulls51c980.39$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007050%35 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84b8…1193backed Bulls25c973.66$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.4234942.7%149 W · 200 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d28…932abacked Bulls25c959.98$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.9924835.1%87 W · 161 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb99…5d0fbacked Cavaliers53c928.8$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.637143.7%31 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Cavaliers66c912.38$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.211,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1aba…9be5backed Bulls78c885.96$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.05955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick70cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Cavaliers76c876.32$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.3218452.7%97 W · 87 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Bulls13c862.97$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.238783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Bulls58c856.84$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.8859743.6%260 W · 337 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Cavaliers71c850.09$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.3278445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Cavaliers75c837$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.2573647.3%348 W · 388 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Cavaliers48c803.96$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.481,69544.7%758 W · 937 L-30.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.