NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb167195946dd8dadbc8cc4ae2755b29cac34fea30cb11065a6a8e49102febf47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Cavaliers, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Cavaliers | 50c | 14,244$7,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,119.55 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb6…3009backed Bulls | 49c | 7,961$3,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,060.11 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bulls | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bulls | 51c | 4,108$2,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,019.96 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Bulls | 50c | 1,726$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.66 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Bulls | 49c | 1,435$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.92 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Cavaliers | 49c | 1,274$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.42 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Bulls | 53c | 977$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.19 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 877$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.19 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Cavaliers | 51c | 758.09$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.63 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Cavaliers | 49c | 696.43$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.25 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…c054backed Bulls | 51c | 686.63$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.45 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Cavaliers | 51c | 588$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 407$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.5 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37fd…e65abacked Cavaliers | 50c | 270$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls | 49c | 269$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.12 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Bulls | 50c | 236.63$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.32 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Bulls | 52c | 235.37$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.98 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…3582backed Bulls | 51c | 176.47$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.47 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ed…e601backed Cavaliers | 50c | 176$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Bulls | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Bulls | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Cavaliers | 51c | 94.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Cavaliers | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Cavaliers | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc47d…feeebacked Cavaliers | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Bulls | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed Bulls | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5c82backed Bulls | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…845bbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Bulls | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Cavaliers | 50c | 31.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…62c7backed Cavaliers | 49c | 30.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…5a2cbacked Bulls | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 54c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Bulls | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bulls | 49c | 28.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cavaliers | 50c | 26.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ef…8e63backed Cavaliers | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Cavaliers | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd036…ec4bbacked Bulls | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9561…3f51backed Cavaliers | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)this page
- Bulls vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Bulls vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.