CS2 · resolved market

Will MOUZ win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2af5f2127511101d2633d80ecb991f60d1b66406b61e493bf284c19738edf6b

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 12, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: CS2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $171,401
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $126,090

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $171,401 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in CS2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9e2f…ec47backed Yes	10c	31,447$3,056 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,055.98	258	42.2%109 W · 149 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe761…cdb1backed Yes	15c	7,037$1,090 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,090.09	79	58.2%46 W · 33 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1939…22e8backed Yes	11c	6,736$729 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$728.9	118	40.7%48 W · 70 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Yes	11c	6,482$713 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$713	716	45.9%329 W · 387 L	-3.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Yes	9c	5,288$476 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$476.03	645	52.9%341 W · 304 L	+27.2wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked Yes	12c	5,210$627 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$626.54	123	28.5%35 W · 88 L	-9.5wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Yes	11c	5,000$527 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$527.43	1,081	50.9%550 W · 531 L	+37.9wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3212…634ebacked Yes	9c	4,650$419 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$418.8	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Yes	13c	4,500$585 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$585	42	42.9%18 W · 24 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf7a…3de0backed Yes	13c	3,902$507 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$507.3	68	47.1%32 W · 36 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	3,724$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.62	1,500	9.9%148 W · 1,352 L	-15.8wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Yes	9c	3,696$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.65	818	43.2%353 W · 465 L	+23.0wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbec7…5977backed Yes	14c	3,491$494 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$494.17	576	47.6%274 W · 302 L	-25.7wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-12%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x15fe…86bebacked Yes	5c	3,312$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.18	136	46.3%63 W · 73 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes	10c	2,930$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.15	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-2.2wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-46%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x05c9…271bbacked Yes	5c	2,927$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.39	98	48%47 W · 51 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cb4…2b73backed Yes	14c	2,900$406 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$406	20	70%14 W · 6 L	+4.7wins	+0.23per pick	47cpaid	+60.2%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0xe0f4…e02fbacked Yes	11c	2,355$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.65	41	34.1%14 W · 27 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdff0…2918backed Yes	10c	2,275$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.37per pick	13cpaid	+223.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e5b…d4ecbacked Yes	8c	2,119$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.5	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	+4.2wins	+0.13per pick	18cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Yes	12c	2,081$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.71	670	41.8%280 W · 390 L	-5.9wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b1b…7d5ebacked Yes	12c	1,225$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146	65	35.4%23 W · 42 L	-3.7wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1b9…5e97backed Yes	10c	1,220$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.19	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes	11c	1,220$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.95	259	34%88 W · 171 L	-8.6wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Yes	10c	1,200$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	239	32.2%77 W · 162 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed Yes	12c	1,188$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139	550	43.1%237 W · 313 L	-7.5wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	11c	1,179$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.01	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8912…1712backed Yes	12c	1,063$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.4	277	35.7%99 W · 178 L	-5.0wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Yes	14c	1,054$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.95	98	61.2%60 W · 38 L	+5.5wins	+0.06per pick	56cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0138…044bbacked Yes	11c	1,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Yes	9c	999.99$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	5,830	37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L	+79.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0164…9ed6backed Yes	10c	999.98$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.7	75	38.7%29 W · 46 L	+5.9wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfde4…7dfcbacked Yes	10c	990$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c5a…be66backed Yes	10c	930.84$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.96	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	+78.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33f8…3282backed Yes	14c	815.23$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.1	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c78…1af0backed Yes	13c	808.69$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-2.1wins	-0.11per pick	53cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	12c	771.77$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.77	317	35.6%113 W · 204 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x866f…d410backed Yes	7c	720$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	65	21.5%14 W · 51 L	+3.4wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	+24%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x990b…c30ebacked Yes	14c	715.69$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.54	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c04…3fdbbacked Yes	12c	699.99$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9f2…0c24backed Yes	11c	659.45$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d28…9b1cbacked Yes	9c	620$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.8	32	50%16 W · 16 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0218…cd8bbacked Yes	11c	583.33$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf713…a97bbacked Yes	8c	506.52$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.52	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	30cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6747…a64fbacked Yes	12c	480.29$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.63	62	25.8%16 W · 46 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf549…2ecbbacked Yes	10c	467.61$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.9	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes	9c	434.8$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.39	211	39.3%83 W · 128 L	-5.4wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdff0…f573backed Yes	12c	413.34$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	341	46.6%159 W · 182 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd53a…3678backed Yes	12c	409.58$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd305…4e8bbacked Yes	13c	400$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+1.3wins	+0.12per pick	25cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d7d…ec26backed Yes	12c	399.99$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	35	57.1%20 W · 15 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes	12c	355.66$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.68	249	35.7%89 W · 160 L	-14.6wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa2b…adcfbacked Yes	12c	336.04$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.71	172	36.6%63 W · 109 L	-8.2wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d60…59bbbacked Yes	10c	325$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.35	85	48.2%41 W · 44 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Yes	11c	299.98$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	259	41.3%107 W · 152 L	+6.2wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93d1…9daebacked Yes	13c	299.11$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-21%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed Yes	14c	297.43$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.3	503	40.2%202 W · 301 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9734…bb94backed Yes	9c	260.1$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.41	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d05…f48dbacked Yes	4c	229.74$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe161…4ebfbacked Yes	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x343b…fda0backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes	11c	198$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.47	157	47.1%74 W · 83 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ce…4f92backed Yes	8c	190$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xceab…1b1ebacked Yes	10c	189.7$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.97	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb608…4e9abacked Yes	6c	185.19$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.11	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x390d…777cbacked Yes	11c	173$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.03	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.18per pick	22cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No	74c	166$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.16	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Yes	9c	160$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	421	42%177 W · 244 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x148f…2f09backed Yes	8c	152.07$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.08	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-4.2wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8334…4e9fbacked Yes	11c	150$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	38	13.2%5 W · 33 L	-5.7wins	-0.15per pick	28cpaid	-71.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x097f…df92backed Yes	12c	144.15$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	+35%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76c0…4731backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	61	37.7%23 W · 38 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98b8…57ffbacked Yes	12c	135.44$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.88	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	46cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb58a…b840backed Yes	12c	108.37$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.07	59	49.2%29 W · 30 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc23e…1461backed Yes	11c	107.66$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.84	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1758…5d73backed Yes	14c	107.14$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.09per pick	36cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc84e…f10abacked Yes	11c	104.35$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.48	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	295	47.8%141 W · 154 L	+10.7wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dd3…8715backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f58…254cbacked Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	170	48.2%82 W · 88 L	+8.1wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2260…ad28backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+4.0wins	+0.21per pick	42cpaid	+49.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No	29c	92.62$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.76	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.71per pick	29cpaid	+244.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa242…34efbacked Yes	14c	70$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will MOUZ win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event