CS2 · resolved market

Will G2 Esports win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd97ba66727c28e8b7dde2b7e210fc37deb41255e6ab8692db7306f2b9b3ee4a1

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 7, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: CS2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $114,575
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $83,007

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,575 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in CS2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9e2f…ec47backed Yes	4c	18,600$683 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$682.98	258	42.2%109 W · 149 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc452…7234backed Yes	0c	15,000$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Yes	3c	6,616$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.41	1,081	50.9%550 W · 531 L	+37.9wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e5b…d4ecbacked Yes	4c	5,100$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.1	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	+4.2wins	+0.13per pick	18cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb2ed…2a85backed Yes	0c	5,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	225	56.9%128 W · 97 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e25…ad7fbacked Yes	3c	5,000$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	+29.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb42…ebebbacked Yes	6c	5,000$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.88	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbff4…eaf3backed Yes	5c	4,694$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.37	114	28.1%32 W · 82 L	-9.7wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	3c	3,633$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.86	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	3,457$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.11	1,500	9.9%148 W · 1,352 L	-15.8wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x677f…1228backed Yes	3c	3,383$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.97	137	40.9%56 W · 81 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87ea…8b74backed Yes	3c	3,349$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.13per pick	27cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b1b…7d5ebacked Yes	4c	3,206$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.13	65	35.4%23 W · 42 L	-3.7wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes	3c	3,105$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.08	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-2.2wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-46%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbec7…5977backed Yes	3c	2,782$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.73	576	47.6%274 W · 302 L	-25.7wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-12%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c590backed Yes	1c	2,615$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.06	143	32.2%46 W · 97 L	+5.0wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes	2c	2,161$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.87	259	34%88 W · 171 L	-8.6wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6747…a64fbacked Yes	3c	1,689$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.97	62	25.8%16 W · 46 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8376…feb4backed Yes	1c	1,480$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.28	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15fe…86bebacked Yes	3c	1,461$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.35	136	46.3%63 W · 73 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Yes	7c	1,200$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.37	239	32.2%77 W · 162 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Yes	2c	1,107$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.56	1,144	49.4%565 W · 579 L	+16.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d4e…d786backed Yes	4c	850.14$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-63.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x390d…777cbacked Yes	3c	765.37$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.62	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.18per pick	22cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d60…59bbbacked Yes	4c	709.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.39	85	48.2%41 W · 44 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	587.61$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.12	597	3%18 W · 579 L	-221.0wins	-0.37per pick	40cpaid	-90.7%equal weight	11-0.36 edge/pick
0xaa2b…adcfbacked Yes	5c	586.55$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	172	36.6%63 W · 109 L	-8.2wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked Yes	3c	551.4$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.54	121	45.5%55 W · 66 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x187a…87ccbacked Yes	3c	499.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Yes	5c	447.59$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.74	1,623	44.9%728 W · 895 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa8a…2257backed Yes	5c	390.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed Yes	7c	148.81$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	503	40.2%202 W · 301 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will G2 Esports win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event