CS2 · resolved market

Will The MongolZ win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92eed78ff469c1094cacb4e7b8a456d228671438984a40782f78c9c16615d054

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 11, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: CS2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $175,926
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $111,667

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $175,926 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in CS2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe161…4ebfbacked Yes	4c	15,421$598 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$597.97	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c590backed Yes	2c	14,117$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.42	143	32.2%46 W · 97 L	+5.0wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e25…ad7fbacked Yes	2c	12,832$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.75	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	+29.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	7,427$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.28	1,500	9.9%148 W · 1,352 L	-15.8wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x589c…3193backed Yes	4c	6,985$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b48…4705backed Yes	2c	6,914$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.28	102	52%53 W · 49 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed Yes	2c	6,284$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.43	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.21per pick	29cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	2c	5,176$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.43	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bee…ca01backed Yes	4c	5,000$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	110	44.5%49 W · 61 L	-4.1wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6bd…b05abacked Yes	8c	4,987$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375	198	34.8%69 W · 129 L	-11.9wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x41dc…9c3dbacked Yes	4c	4,851$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.5	53	30.2%16 W · 37 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes	4c	4,050$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.61	446	48.4%216 W · 230 L	-15.2wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc192…086cbacked Yes	3c	4,030$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.77	275	30.9%85 W · 190 L	-18.6wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes	3c	2,950$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.94	35	48.6%17 W · 18 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39a8…7d57backed Yes	5c	2,403$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.53	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1b8…f08dbacked Yes	1c	2,400$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe761…cdb1backed Yes	6c	2,180$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.69	79	58.2%46 W · 33 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x862e…7972backed Yes	4c	2,173$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.77	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	24cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes	2c	2,150$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.36	259	34%88 W · 171 L	-8.6wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa43f…fc07backed Yes	4c	2,000$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-51.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xda48…30fcbacked Yes	2c	2,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b9b…7e7cbacked Yes	2c	1,924$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.91	210	42.9%90 W · 120 L	-12.2wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e5b…d4ecbacked Yes	2c	1,583$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.66	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	+4.2wins	+0.13per pick	18cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Yes	2c	1,485$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.77	259	41.3%107 W · 152 L	+6.2wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff4…eaf3backed Yes	2c	1,482$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.58	114	28.1%32 W · 82 L	-9.7wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc330…9794backed Yes	2c	1,399$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.17	62	29%18 W · 44 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes	4c	1,358$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.6	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.4wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+17%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9901…384abacked Yes	1c	1,356$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.42	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Yes	2c	1,200$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	239	32.2%77 W · 162 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x19d8…08e8backed Yes	1c	1,200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3ec0…7e26backed Yes	2c	1,110$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe286…6896backed Yes	3c	1,104$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	56	35.7%20 W · 36 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bee…c140backed Yes	2c	1,088$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.31	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-70.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b1b…7d5ebacked Yes	3c	1,073$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	65	35.4%23 W · 42 L	-3.7wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed Yes	4c	1,022$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.88	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x908f…35a8backed Yes	1c	1,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd03…af6bbacked Yes	2c	1,000$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f58…254cbacked Yes	2c	999.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	170	48.2%82 W · 88 L	+8.1wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes	1c	999.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	812	44.3%360 W · 452 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15fe…86bebacked Yes	1c	999.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	136	46.3%63 W · 73 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6113…2443backed Yes	2c	976.18$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	57	38.6%22 W · 35 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	802.57$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.97	597	3%18 W · 579 L	-221.0wins	-0.37per pick	40cpaid	-90.7%equal weight	11-0.36 edge/pick
0x8d4e…d786backed Yes	2c	703.75$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-63.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa8a…2257backed Yes	3c	675.8$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes	2c	641.71$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.89	26	50%13 W · 13 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+32.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd305…4e8bbacked Yes	3c	559$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+1.3wins	+0.12per pick	25cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf713…a97bbacked Yes	3c	511.77$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.84	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	30cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d73…044bbacked Yes	3c	508.47$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.61	154	41.6%64 W · 90 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a5a…ad63backed Yes	2c	501.9$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcba…4d0bbacked Yes	4c	481.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	48%12 W · 13 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1758…5d73backed Yes	4c	349.65$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.09per pick	36cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43c3…076dbacked Yes	5c	328.27$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.47	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+2.8wins	+0.11per pick	45cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes	4c	323$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.59	157	47.1%74 W · 83 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa867…871dbacked Yes	5c	220$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.34	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbec7…5977backed Yes	5c	201.28$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.06	576	47.6%274 W · 302 L	-25.7wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-12%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdd0…fb81backed Yes	7c	176.13$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.54	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	45cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No	26c	83.1$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.41	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.74per pick	26cpaid	+283.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will The MongolZ win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event