CS2 · resolved market

Will PARIVISION win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x920f4e039673cf92d1807ff58079087ce0f8d2bf35420107d6f5eed82d1becb2

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 5, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: CS2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $100,196
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $58,623

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,196 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in CS2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa5f0…583dbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac0c…739cbacked Yes	0c	10,000$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.67	660	34.1%225 W · 435 L	-21.3wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5166…f454backed Yes	1c	5,235$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.12	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-2.4wins	-0.11per pick	24cpaid	-77%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Yes	0c	4,751$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.45	1,081	50.9%550 W · 531 L	+37.9wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	3,911$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.73	1,500	9.9%148 W · 1,352 L	-15.8wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe39c…5ec0backed Yes	1c	3,287$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.41	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	+2.2wins	+0.10per pick	28cpaid	+51.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Yes	1c	2,848$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	1,623	44.9%728 W · 895 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes	1c	2,800$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.42	194	23.7%46 W · 148 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1b8…f08dbacked Yes	1c	2,400$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43c3…076dbacked Yes	1c	2,269$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.38	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+2.8wins	+0.11per pick	45cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbbb5…e30dbacked Yes	1c	2,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbff4…eaf3backed Yes	1c	1,849$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.12	114	28.1%32 W · 82 L	-9.7wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4efe…813dbacked Yes	3c	1,426$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.91	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	28cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb990…1a3abacked Yes	1c	1,395$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	83	12%10 W · 73 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7fc…c631backed Yes	1c	1,250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	59	47.5%28 W · 31 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed Yes	2c	857.82$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.09	317	31.9%101 W · 216 L	-13.4wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa037…9096backed Yes	2c	635.15$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will PARIVISION win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event