TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel strike on Yemen by September 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$151,544
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$141,974

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,544 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfc53…9754backed Yes1c13,353$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.977025.7%18 W · 52 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf58f…37a4backed Yes47c7,533$3,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,508.151353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.21per pick33cpaid+104.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x843b…2673backed Yes15c5,527$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.952123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe967…f62bbacked Yes51c4,955$2,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,541.191637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefce…f0e7backed Yes13c4,936$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.631827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4828…1cf3backed Yes49c4,755$2,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,319.99650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes2c4,627$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.573847.4%18 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes14c3,886$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.8935819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed No74c3,833$2,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.48056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes14c3,461$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.286118%11 W · 50 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick20cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf00a…c77cbacked No62c2,570$1,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.374753.2%25 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec0b…69e6backed No65c2,523$1,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.27751.9%40 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1555…7d82backed Yes25c2,165$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.224429.5%13 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes21c1,949$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.2214520.7%30 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9a4…996dbacked No74c1,808$1,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.053633.3%12 W · 24 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-43.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes42c1,714$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72034440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed No58c1,683$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.3133337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes14c1,665$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.9219428.9%56 W · 138 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes30c1,556$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.356336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed Yes2c1,550$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.713033.1%43 W · 87 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes3c1,484$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017929.1%52 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39b1…9124backed No63c1,455$922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-60.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7255…67e0backed No37c1,450$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.96862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked Yes28c1,437$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.2412245.9%56 W · 66 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes50c1,381$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.9447334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65fb…92cabacked Yes3c1,335$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.752729.6%8 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes35c1,283$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.997233.3%24 W · 48 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b22…1d59backed No54c1,153$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.03250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf7…65d9backed No71c1,150$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.652924.1%7 W · 22 L-4.8wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-64.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes11c1,131$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.7229129.9%87 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+30.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No80c1,115$892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.974769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…8309backed No74c958.53$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cf5…4e75backed No78c902.59$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.592425%6 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-42.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…3ee3backed No61c893.24$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.083748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ad…92abbacked Yes27c826.02$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-68.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9f2…0c24backed Yes61c811.84$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.992714.8%4 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-40.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d2c…17d2backed No38c764.99$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.291758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+39.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb104…17b1backed No44c752.22$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.22540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+57.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32be…bac4backed No79c710.69$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.55952.5%31 W · 28 L+5.8wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa244…8e63backed Yes14c702.63$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0411531.3%36 W · 79 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes3c700$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.011435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-40.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes3c679.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.364940.8%20 W · 29 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+34.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3806…f4c4backed Yes16c633.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes10c625.72$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.613713.5%5 W · 32 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-69.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes55c568.62$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.324445.5%20 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec76…f9f1backed No78c565.88$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.483759.5%22 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x370c…055abacked Yes17c517.06$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.241421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-54.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x711c…8495backed Yes14c504.27$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.538641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5023525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes3c500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134327.9%12 W · 31 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick18cpaid+22%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed Yes23c472.03$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.5317646.6%82 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes31c463.89$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.8115331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes20c452.19$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.2240828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes17c433.12$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8731719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f49…7458backed No70c428.57$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.575455.6%30 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes13c422$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2613645.6%62 W · 74 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3be…1015backed Yes22c418.18$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903923.1%9 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-46.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0faf…d0d9backed No72c416.18$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.4717347.4%82 W · 91 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe281…e7bfbacked No32c406.14$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.19258%2 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-79.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e83…a4a0backed Yes22c400$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885829.3%17 W · 41 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No15c346.43$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.785127.5%14 W · 37 L+7.6wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+151%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes15c340.29$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8126616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes26c338.79$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.2414940.9%61 W · 88 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x02b1…fb65backed Yes7c337.29$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.512321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-32.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dec…4dcebacked No39c309.13$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdecf…923cbacked No38c309.06$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.09425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Yes33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde0e…746abacked Yes51c278.78$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.684540%18 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x50d8…a0a2backed Yes8c272.43$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe277…8e46backed No37c256.82$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.0516440.2%66 W · 98 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd061…d5e4backed Yes9c253.73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.743625%9 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d4d…ca54backed Yes44c249.06$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.853145.2%14 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4636…1052backed Yes33c242.5$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf283…cb3dbacked Yes8c238.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca44…6d4ebacked No62c225.01$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.014436.4%16 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc652…11b1backed Yes49c224.77$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.85044%22 W · 28 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4f4…447cbacked No69c219.88$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.88966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ef3…4dc7backed Yes9c214.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No80c200$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6867841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed Yes37c200$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5410045%45 W · 55 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9b32…3f5fbacked Yes79c199.99$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.5940%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ac1…6c28backed Yes16c195.89$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4947…d6fabacked Yes44c188.44$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.23240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes25c176.77$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.555633.9%19 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-23.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes11c175.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9540939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe952…3f28backed No57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb6b…23b0backed Yes23c173$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No20c166$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.89955.6%55 W · 44 L+10.5wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed Yes24c163.04$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.565328.3%15 W · 38 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2230…a66cbacked No77c156.59$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.382272.7%16 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+20.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4db1…7a85backed No35c149.57$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.67450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5e…a091backed Yes67c137.08$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921020%2 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-62.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes64c130.46$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.5419534.4%67 W · 128 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No58c130.35$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.0242120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bba…b571backed Yes31c129.34$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403622.2%8 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes36c129$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4442738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x30a0…b9d4backed No64c125.92$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.92475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc75…b64dbacked No45c122.76$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.93754.1%20 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91ac…215dbacked No80c120.6$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.51428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-59.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a9e…e4a8backed No71c113.07$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.