NBA · resolved market
Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x206b38e042842cb2a295a15ff8a1ed548904fcfed0cfeef1468fa85394a2e704
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 50c | 3,081$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540.8 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Under | 50c | 3,066$1,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,532.85 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 2,083$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.21 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 1,504$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.78 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 50c | 1,339$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.5 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee7…0ba8backed Under | 50c | 1,258$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.99 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 1,188$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.12 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Under | 53c | 1,100$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92fa…7d02backed Under | 60c | 764.7$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 40c | 601.64$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.98 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 547.39$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.75 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57eb…3a67backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…718ebacked Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…b151backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Under | 51c | 162$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.62 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 50c | 154$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Under | 50c | 154$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 177 | 58.2%103 W · 74 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5c…d9acbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Over | 43c | 97.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…8c58backed Over | 49c | 88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddf6…9bd5backed Over | 49c | 74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 38c | 59.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f68…5e99backed Under | 51c | 27.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.8wins | -0.47per pick | 60cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 52c | 26.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…532bbacked Over | 51c | 25.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4aa…947cbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 224.5this page
- Rockets vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 220.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 221.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 222.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 223.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-10.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Rockets (-7.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Rockets (-8.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Rockets (-9.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.