NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb170bde267bb1c6651853da41053a00df475fb7cd2d2253cbc595348c3a2088
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Rockets, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rockets | 41c | 1,048$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.73 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Rockets | 45c | 510$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.5 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Mavericks | 53c | 363.83$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…914abacked Mavericks | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 138 | 60.1%83 W · 55 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Mavericks | 58c | 256$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.52 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Rockets | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Mavericks | 60c | 207.8$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.12 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Mavericks | 63c | 190$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Mavericks | 65c | 185.1$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Rockets | 35c | 166.77$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…85a1backed Mavericks | 63c | 120$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Rockets | 43c | 96.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7068…c63bbacked Mavericks | 57c | 95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e02…c5f2backed Rockets | 42c | 84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bb17backed Rockets | 42c | 81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Rockets | 42c | 57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46a…e9dbbacked Rockets | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f3…a42abacked Rockets | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82d3…08bcbacked Rockets | 48c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x075a…8d34backed Mavericks | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75d…1d45backed Rockets | 49c | 31.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 223 | 47.1%105 W · 118 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Mavericks | 64c | 27.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Mavericks | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb116…940abacked Mavericks | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…e546backed Mavericks | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-10.5)this page
- Rockets vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 220.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 221.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 222.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 223.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 224.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-7.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Rockets (-8.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Rockets (-9.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.