NBA · resolved market
Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 222.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe50e1c6cdccf27fb56269c31193363ddda8b6ac40de7405afa34c72a7253e7df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 6,093$2,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,738.85 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Over | 57c | 3,701$2,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,594.68 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…25a9backed Over | 58c | 1,724$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.14 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 49c | 1,393$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.43 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 50c | 1,111$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.5 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 52c | 1,093$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.36 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 740.36$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.3 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 55c | 580$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 47c | 564$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.7 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 52c | 505$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.62 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 49c | 505$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.94 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 51c | 474$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.26 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 52c | 362$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.76 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 47c | 299.99$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 44c | 263$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.72 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Over | 48c | 260.27$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.34 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…9811backed Over | 49c | 223.97$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.97 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 47c | 207.54$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d53…061cbacked Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40b…175fbacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Under | 45c | 118$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 52c | 101.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 48c | 92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…dc5bbacked Over | 55c | 66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeff8…1bcfbacked Under | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…f9a1backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 350 | 52%182 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…64d2backed Over | 55c | 52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Over | 48c | 45.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…3d3abacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…80c9backed Over | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 222.5this page
- Rockets vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 220.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 221.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 223.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 224.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-10.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Rockets (-7.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Rockets (-8.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Rockets (-9.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.