NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1828378e3cb2bfb8ef2476c1177233921092101b5fcf1b5f9095a230a5be28b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Rockets, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Mavericks | 51c | 19,023$9,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,403.1 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Rockets | 50c | 15,744$7,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,872 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Rockets | 50c | 5,426$2,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,713 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Mavericks | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Rockets | 50c | 3,333$1,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,666.5 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rockets | 48c | 3,203$1,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,547.78 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Mavericks | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 722 | 41.4%299 W · 423 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…1862backed Rockets | 51c | 2,451$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae5…b896backed Mavericks | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Mavericks | 49c | 1,813$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.71 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Mavericks | 49c | 499.99$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Mavericks | 51c | 423.78$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.5 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…768ebacked Rockets | 50c | 253.73$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40b…175fbacked Rockets | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…1100backed Mavericks | 53c | 131.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…e064backed Mavericks | 52c | 115.94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Rockets | 49c | 109$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…848ebacked Mavericks | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Rockets | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Rockets | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Rockets | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Rockets | 50c | 49.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Rockets | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Rockets | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-7.5)this page
- Rockets vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 220.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 221.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 222.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 223.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 224.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-10.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Rockets (-8.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Rockets (-9.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.