NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42bb8da12f18982b6ecc8d8f9b3438fda2d317624ca13c240921b5ce6d692c41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Rockets, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Rockets | 51c | 11,792$6,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,061.08 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Mavericks | 49c | 10,589$5,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,404.22 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Rockets | 53c | 8,701$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,600 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks | 51c | 8,420$4,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,114.67 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a0…42a3backed Mavericks | 47c | 7,900$3,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,187 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…512fbacked Rockets | 53c | 7,900$4,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,187 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Rockets | 44c | 4,555$2,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,004.05 | 419 | 54.4%228 W · 191 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Mavericks | 55c | 2,887$1,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,302.5 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Rockets | 45c | 2,730$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.5 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Mavericks | 46c | 2,214$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.22 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Mavericks | 57c | 2,061$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.18 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Mavericks | 49c | 1,986$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.28 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Rockets | 43c | 1,456$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.53 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf78e…0956backed Mavericks | 69c | 1,014$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.34 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Rockets | 47c | 996.98$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.61 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Mavericks | 57c | 900$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Rockets | 43c | 862$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.66 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mavericks | 48c | 859$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.68 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Rockets | 45c | 828.99$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.05 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Rockets | 53c | 738.89$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Mavericks | 55c | 581.82$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.82 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Mavericks | 48c | 578.16$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.65 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rockets | 30c | 481$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.01 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Rockets | 40c | 384.73$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.33 | 266 | 38.7%103 W · 163 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Rockets | 42c | 313.97$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.87 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Mavericks | 46c | 300$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Mavericks | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 294 | 58.5%172 W · 122 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Mavericks | 53c | 248$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.12 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Rockets | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Mavericks | 47c | 211.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.87 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Rockets | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Mavericks | 50c | 198.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.53 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…733cbacked Rockets | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Mavericks | 55c | 185$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Mavericks | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 661 | 53.3%352 W · 309 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Mavericks | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Mavericks | 58c | 168.97$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.97 | 631 | 42%265 W · 366 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Mavericks | 48c | 167.83$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.27 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Rockets | 47c | 157.45$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Mavericks | 49c | 140$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…b07dbacked Rockets | 44c | 136.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Rockets | 52c | 135.82$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.63 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Mavericks | 52c | 134.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.81 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Mavericks | 50c | 134$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…532bbacked Mavericks | 50c | 129.95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.89 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Rockets | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Mavericks | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Mavericks | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Rockets | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Rockets | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Rockets | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Rockets | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda23…5bc4backed Rockets | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…5c00backed Mavericks | 48c | 83.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Rockets | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…68a5backed Rockets | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…a3d3backed Rockets | 51c | 78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Rockets | 33c | 73.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fd…7d56backed Rockets | 46c | 72.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Rockets | 43c | 63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1af…c803backed Mavericks | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Rockets | 43c | 58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Rockets | 51c | 57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de1…2d12backed Mavericks | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 169 | 68.6%116 W · 53 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Rockets | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Rockets | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Mavericks | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Mavericks | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Mavericks | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Mavericks | 47c | 39.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa75d…1d45backed Rockets | 55c | 36.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 223 | 47.1%105 W · 118 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Mavericks | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…a67fbacked Rockets | 46c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…9971backed Mavericks | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 281 | 56.2%158 W · 123 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Rockets | 53c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…a54abacked Rockets | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f68…5e99backed Rockets | 54c | 26.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.8wins | -0.47per pick | 60cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…f12fbacked Rockets | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Rockets | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-8.5)this page
- Rockets vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 220.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 221.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 222.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 223.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 224.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-10.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Rockets (-7.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Rockets (-9.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.