NBA · resolved market
Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 221.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa07a46d387162ef1ee72ccfdec5b9c9f50d6864aa1f71bfa61695b1052fa9b85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 10,269$4,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,920.2 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 5,950$2,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,975 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5945…67cabacked Over | 51c | 2,745$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,345.1 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 45c | 1,712$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.49 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 56c | 1,339$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.29 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Over | 56c | 690$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.8 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 46c | 682.99$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.76 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 54c | 333$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.18 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 55c | 195$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.7 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Under | 43c | 130$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 126$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.42 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 54c | 120$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 47c | 82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…4938backed Under | 51c | 78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x220e…3b20backed Over | 58c | 75.71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…af12backed Over | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Over | 57c | 62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…59c4backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf683…f2dfbacked Over | 57c | 58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 49c | 54.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 141 | 27.7%39 W · 102 L | -16.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711d…fe4bbacked Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 49c | 31.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…1ef0backed Over | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f8…256ebacked Over | 59c | 28.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a3…dac6backed Over | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d21cbacked Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 221.5this page
- Rockets vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 220.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 222.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 223.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 224.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-10.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Rockets (-7.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Rockets (-8.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Rockets (-9.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.