NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8618c070e91f710c0031a90b7e6627efbb457943f5d6fa5b55e7b86c7a7a445c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Over | 52c | 11,163$5,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,801.59 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 49c | 9,322$4,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,585.57 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Under | 46c | 5,640$2,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,045.6 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Under | 45c | 3,995$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,194.9 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 51c | 2,895$1,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,431.06 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 2,445$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,235.49 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf88e…b92cbacked Under | 51c | 1,937$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Under | 45c | 1,850$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.5 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Under | 50c | 1,374$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Under | 50c | 1,344$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92fa…7d02backed Over | 56c | 1,270$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.44 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7084…0ae5backed Under | 51c | 1,243$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.14 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Over | 51c | 1,078$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 45c | 900$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 227 | 56.8%129 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 47c | 892$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.89 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497a…2fc8backed Under | 51c | 878.43$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 51c | 723.75$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.65 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 631.48$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.09 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 44c | 600.06$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.04 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 48c | 583$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.16 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 48c | 503$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.56 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Under | 49c | 499.95$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.97 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 51c | 481.83$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 50c | 455.08$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.54 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…8a3ebacked Under | 41c | 443.65$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.72 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 4c | 334.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 302$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.97 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 56c | 300$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3605…1ae1backed Over | 50c | 299.87$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 230 | 43%99 W · 131 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Over | 50c | 230$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 49c | 225.85$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.25 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…718ebacked Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…b151backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Over | 48c | 193$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.64 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Over | 52c | 180.48$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.52 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…7e0bbacked Over | 57c | 175.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 479 | 49.7%238 W · 241 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdb…6404backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 531 | 41.8%222 W · 309 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a6…c0fabacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 70cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ac…4035backed Over | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 43cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc4…b756backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f56…f93cbacked Under | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 50c | 52.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 51c | 48.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…59c4backed Over | 56c | 46.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc42…01b2backed Under | 50c | 39.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 849 | 57.6%489 W · 360 L | -52.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…86a5backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 50c | 30.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Over | 50c | 30.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfac…75debacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x08cd…4edbbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Hornets won
- Jamal Murray: Points Over 23.5Yes won
- Nuggets vs. HornetsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Nuggets vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.