NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x141effda091d23a0df930c703045576b06cd66cda098776e0e4dccb7e10002b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Under | 45c | 10,580$4,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,869.7 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Over | 54c | 6,860$3,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,704.14 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 56c | 2,643$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,467.03 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 1,843$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.22 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Under | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 156 | 56.4%88 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 54c | 440$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.6 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc213…80f7backed Over | 58c | 434.48$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…38cbbacked Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0622backed Over | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…4c7abacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 53c | 29.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…eb14backed Over | 54c | 29.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Over | 58c | 21.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 244 | 23.8%58 W · 186 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…64acbacked Over | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Hornets won
- Jamal Murray: Points Over 23.5Yes won
- Nuggets vs. HornetsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Nuggets vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.