TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hornetsof Nuggets, Hornets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$683,183
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$683,928

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $683,183 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9165…5b98backed Hornets52c363,985$188,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175,329.0725248.4%122 W · 130 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Nuggets48c85,431$41,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,268.322,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Nuggets48c56,550$27,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,14418151.9%94 W · 87 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Nuggets48c55,000$26,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,40059653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd43c…04e8backed Nuggets51c53,446$27,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,257.2611535.7%41 W · 74 L-12.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Nuggets48c49,485$23,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,752.8926753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Nuggets49c40,927$19,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,987.71,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Hornets51c30,000$15,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,70066853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Hornets49c30,000$14,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,299.9817354.3%94 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed Nuggets48c24,948$11,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,975.041735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-38.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets48c24,428$11,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,846.659,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nuggets48c20,070$9,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,733.85,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Hornets51c20,000$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,8004452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Nuggets49c19,700$9,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,6531,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nuggets48c15,000$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,2002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Nuggets49c13,662$6,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,694.5448448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets49c12,124$5,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,932.368,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Nuggets49c11,257$5,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,459.723,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcab8…a34fbacked Hornets49c10,204$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,204.08250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Hornets52c10,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,80017658%102 W · 74 L+13.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x86f0…d5b3backed Hornets49c9,796$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,995.922100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Nuggets49c7,590$3,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,683.892,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe66e…abddbacked Nuggets51c7,369$3,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,758.24035%14 W · 26 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-30.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Hornets51c5,500$2,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,69547748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Hornets51c5,096$2,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,472.961,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Hornets51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4505556.4%31 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Hornets49c4,420$2,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,254.4511741.9%49 W · 68 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Nuggets51c3,922$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Nuggets48c3,632$1,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,753.362,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Nuggets46c3,261$1,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,496.424,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5c4…a087backed Hornets49c3,040$1,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,549.62366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+28.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Nuggets49c2,825$1,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,384.252,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3d6…34e3backed Nuggets49c2,807$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,375.5420542.9%88 W · 117 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Nuggets49c2,000$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97044654.3%242 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Hornets51c1,907$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$936.7369852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Hornets50c1,837$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$918.5748845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Nuggets48c1,614$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.352,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8839…8a3ebacked Nuggets44c1,551$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.177433.8%25 W · 49 L-8.5wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-31.7%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Nuggets50c1,332$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66639051.5%201 W · 189 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed Nuggets46c1,239$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.610650%53 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d9d…992bbacked Nuggets48c1,219$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.4111834.7%41 W · 77 L-9.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Nuggets48c1,200$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57619448.5%94 W · 100 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Nuggets49c1,167$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.721,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nuggets48c1,145$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.62,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Hornets49c1,083$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.3335651.1%182 W · 174 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Hornets52c1,016$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48851753.8%278 W · 239 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27df…e67cbacked Hornets53c1,009$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.618438.1%32 W · 52 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc1f7…c4e5backed Nuggets65c1,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65015656.4%88 W · 68 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Nuggets47c952.47$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.6687144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf704…bed4backed Nuggets50c792.16$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40016943.8%74 W · 95 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Hornets55c773.28$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.382,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Nuggets48c770.11$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.652,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Nuggets52c705$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.9385742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Nuggets48c627$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.962,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets48c591$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.366,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Nuggets42c585$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.091,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17b9…430dbacked Hornets51c580$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.213040%52 W · 78 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Hornets50c559.92$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.5682440.4%333 W · 491 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked Nuggets49c554.99$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.957055.7%39 W · 31 L+7.2wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Nuggets13c550$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.891,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ff…62ccbacked Nuggets51c510$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.16442.2%27 W · 37 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Nuggets44c500.94$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.9417941.9%75 W · 104 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Hornets51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24573649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04ac…c7b0backed Hornets51c499.98$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.991172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+26.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb428…13bfbacked Nuggets51c490.2$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2505541.8%23 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Hornets54c462.94$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.953562.9%22 W · 13 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa5c…be69backed Nuggets53c426.42$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22627939.8%111 W · 168 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a88…2854backed Nuggets49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb89…46f1backed Nuggets50c401.4$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.4910045%45 W · 55 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fde…66b2backed Nuggets51c390.2$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1995756.1%32 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3436…17c5backed Hornets60c345$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.952462.5%15 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x775e…6541backed Nuggets52c300$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1564650%23 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Nuggets49c300$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1477753.2%41 W · 36 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Nuggets49c300$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14766645.9%306 W · 360 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Hornets42c264.47$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.1521243.4%92 W · 120 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Nuggets47c250$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.510735.5%38 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e84…768ebacked Nuggets52c246.15$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12813644.9%61 W · 75 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9ed…617ebacked Hornets52c244.71$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.711145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick62cpaid-22.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e46…0742backed Nuggets51c240$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.423948.5%116 W · 123 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Hornets51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9878652.4%412 W · 374 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Nuggets48c197$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5662541.9%262 W · 363 L-32.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Nuggets50c196.67$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9826150.2%131 W · 130 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Nuggets51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Nuggets51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10029346.4%136 W · 157 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ed3…bffcbacked Hornets49c193.88$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.881464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+24.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21b4…e064backed Hornets52c192.69$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.4911946.2%55 W · 64 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd565…972bbacked Nuggets52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-60.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x744b…848ebacked Nuggets51c158.82$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8114552.4%76 W · 69 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Hornets50c151$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.561747.8%295 W · 322 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Hornets52c135$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6581845.7%374 W · 444 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf2…06c2backed Nuggets51c130$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.315051.3%77 W · 73 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x265b…74dfbacked Nuggets49c128.37$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.95345.3%24 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Nuggets48c128$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9231852.2%166 W · 152 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Nuggets48c128$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9226648.5%129 W · 137 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Nuggets48c127.88$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8632649.7%162 W · 164 L-1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68f3…be4abacked Nuggets38c125$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.75119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick30cpaid-86%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Nuggets48c124.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.183,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9270…7c9ebacked Nuggets49c121.56$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5611445.6%52 W · 62 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0da5…5adfbacked Nuggets50c120$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6012550.4%63 W · 62 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Nuggets48c112$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2424552.7%129 W · 116 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.