NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d78ddbea2e954037c63b2b6964c3b4117847b1f4f61dca1d851eb654ef29223
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 42c | 3,501$1,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,476.66 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Over | 58c | 3,500$2,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 2,778$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.72 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Over | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b4…e861backed Over | 59c | 781.14$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.95 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…3ff3backed Over | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 49c | 315.69$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.69 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…60bebacked Under | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 250 | 16.8%42 W · 208 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…0d57backed Over | 51c | 276.47$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.47 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf247…e269backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 247 | 31.2%77 W · 170 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Under | 49c | 194$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.06 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 40c | 189.36$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.74 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 39c | 185.61$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.17 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c3…0e32backed Over | 57c | 177.19$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.19 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Over | 60c | 167.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.69 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d3…cc60backed Over | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 51c | 85.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92fa…7d02backed Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 49c | 70.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 41c | 61.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 246 | 45.9%113 W · 133 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Under | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 141 | 27.7%39 W · 102 L | -16.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…f9a1backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 350 | 52%182 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…f0d7backed Under | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0622backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d21cbacked Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Under | 41c | 25.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5this page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-5.5)Hawks won
- Hawks vs. WizardsHawks won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-9.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.