NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hawks (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c46bdc78ccbbfc3e7998a70498107f1d5e3514c4872cfb82ee6fd6ff394d619
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Hawks, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c50…a2a9backed Hawks | 53c | 8,100$4,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,807 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e6…265bbacked Wizards | 47c | 8,100$3,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,807 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Hawks | 55c | 4,022$2,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,815.12 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Wizards | 43c | 3,514$1,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,511.04 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…6793backed Hawks | 57c | 3,509$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.77 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Wizards | 45c | 1,958$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.1 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Wizards | 47c | 1,917$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.99 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 45c | 1,538$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.72 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Hawks | 55c | 1,300$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hawks | 53c | 647$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.09 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Wizards | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Wizards | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee7…0ba8backed Hawks | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Hawks | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.7 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Wizards | 46c | 453$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.38 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Hawks | 54c | 299.99$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Wizards | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Wizards | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Hawks | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Hawks | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Wizards | 45c | 173.33$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Wizards | 45c | 155.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…848ebacked Hawks | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Wizards | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Hawks | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 227 | 56.8%129 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Hawks | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…5c00backed Wizards | 46c | 87.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Wizards | 45c | 82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a98…9110backed Hawks | 56c | 78.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Wizards | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Hawks | 57c | 54.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Wizards | 41c | 50.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2078…2d66backed Hawks | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Hawks | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…06c2backed Hawks | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7543…1852backed Wizards | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Hawks | 54c | 42.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Hawks | 54c | 38.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…4c7abacked Hawks | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bb…1918backed Hawks | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370a…cccebacked Hawks | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Wizards | 45c | 29.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-5.5)Hawks won
- Hawks vs. WizardsHawks won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Hawks (-9.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.