NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4ed02703eda989483bcfaf333ec5b45e8aaf3bd14b2f860c56e703748a2fbc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 9,533$4,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,678.88 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 51c | 9,435$4,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,593.1 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 3,540$1,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,698.63 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 52c | 3,333$1,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.84 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…c98abacked Under | 49c | 1,998$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Under | 46c | 1,732$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.9 | 270 | 51.5%139 W · 131 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 54c | 1,008$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.68 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 46c | 620.7$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.38 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 29c | 619.13$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.86 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 53c | 597.8$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.8 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Over | 72c | 555.56$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.56 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 54c | 555$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.3 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 306.04$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.65 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…bbbbbacked Over | 48c | 206.25$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Under | 55c | 132.73$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked Over | 52c | 132$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 46c | 126.14$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…86a5backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 45c | 85.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…32ddbacked Over | 55c | 72.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 53c | 57.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 54c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…532bbacked Under | 49c | 46.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe26b…a9ecbacked Over | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…d512backed Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4918…3db7backed Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…bc16backed Under | 48c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…48b7backed Over | 57c | 38.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bb…1918backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…ef29backed Over | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…af12backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc7…31c0backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1374…867fbacked Over | 54c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…218cbacked Under | 48c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Over | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked Under | 42c | 27.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 27.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe44…1720backed Under | 47c | 27.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 51c | 26.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 49c | 25.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d49…c438backed Under | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -6.0wins | -0.22per pick | 54cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5this page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-5.5)Hawks won
- Hawks vs. WizardsHawks won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-9.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.