NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hawks (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f31be5666ccdabb958397a7c30af677925bd57d6e6087dc9416d1835120d1d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Hawks, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09d1…9d8fbacked Wizards | 51c | 10,908$5,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,562.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x907f…5f2dbacked Hawks | 49c | 10,204$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,204.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Hawks | 50c | 8,428$4,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,214 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf32…e0e7backed Wizards | 51c | 7,800$3,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,978 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…00f6backed Hawks | 49c | 7,800$3,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,978 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Wizards | 50c | 4,075$2,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,037.26 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Wizards | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Wizards | 52c | 3,850$2,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,002 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Wizards | 48c | 2,758$1,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,323.81 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawks | 49c | 2,642$1,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,356.7 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hawks | 46c | 2,000$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.69 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Hawks | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 591 | 40.8%241 W · 350 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9d…992bbacked Hawks | 49c | 1,375$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.48 | 118 | 34.7%41 W · 77 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Hawks | 47c | 1,356$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.65 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Wizards | 52c | 1,306$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.25 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Hawks | 48c | 1,233$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.16 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Hawks | 70c | 1,181$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.88 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Wizards | 54c | 1,111$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf1…5831backed Hawks | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Wizards | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Wizards | 46c | 967.13$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.71 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ff…62ccbacked Hawks | 49c | 899.98$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.99 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Wizards | 53c | 861.14$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.4 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Wizards | 51c | 799.99$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Wizards | 30c | 796.67$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 161 | 36%58 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Hawks | 48c | 626.97$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.02 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Wizards | 51c | 617.07$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Wizards | 54c | 593.05$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.95 | 238 | 45%107 W · 131 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc4…a439backed Wizards | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Hawks | 51c | 497.37$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.71 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -18.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hawks | 48c | 491$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.32 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c6…55acbacked Wizards | 51c | 310.35$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.28 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Wizards | 73c | 300$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.2 | 185 | 56.8%105 W · 80 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Hawks | 49c | 256$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.56 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Hawks | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…df76backed Hawks | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 470 | 48.5%228 W · 242 L | -18.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…6ea7backed Hawks | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 141 | 45.4%64 W · 77 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Hawks | 48c | 199.96$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.98 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…a3acbacked Wizards | 59c | 172.46$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Wizards | 50c | 165.54$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.7 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…85a1backed Wizards | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Wizards | 49c | 121.22$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…e064backed Hawks | 51c | 118.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Hawks | 52c | 116.38$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Hawks | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Wizards | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Hawks | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Wizards | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Hawks | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Hawks | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Wizards | 48c | 99.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Wizards | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…768ebacked Hawks | 53c | 90.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Wizards | 47c | 75.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…68a5backed Hawks | 50c | 73.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Wizards | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Hawks | 49c | 55.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Hawks | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Wizards | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11c1…7fe5backed Wizards | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Wizards | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Wizards | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733e…c558backed Wizards | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…97dfbacked Wizards | 52c | 32.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff9c…2c98backed Hawks | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Hawks | 51c | 24.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Hawks | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a51…ef48backed Hawks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Hawks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd94b…f42bbacked Wizards | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawks (-9.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-5.5)Hawks won
- Hawks vs. WizardsHawks won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.