NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc6337f20239a51b1e24d68f3c13b13279d420e67135959dd2a5675ee0573895
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 5,038$2,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,375.49 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Over | 52c | 4,059$2,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,957.59 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked Over | 54c | 1,912$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.71 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…25a9backed Over | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.79 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 44c | 1,494$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.36 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 53c | 1,053$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.83 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…c98abacked Under | 48c | 997.92$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 862.44$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.04 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 45c | 616$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.22 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Over | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.77 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 271.61$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.8 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Over | 57c | 220$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.6 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Under | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…17e7backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 51c | 93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Under | 46c | 64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…5ca7backed Over | 57c | 56.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…b518backed Under | 47c | 43.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…4165backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Over | 56c | 30.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…80c9backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 51c | 29.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked Under | 41c | 27.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5this page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-5.5)Hawks won
- Hawks vs. WizardsHawks won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-9.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.