TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6a98…9110

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
60
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Bundesliga, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Bundesliga at 52 out of 100; worst Premier League at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST4544.4%20 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 45 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Magic vs. Grizzliesbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$500
Jazz vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$499Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+66.7%+$332.67
Cavaliers vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$500
Bulls vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+96.1%+$192.16
Pelicans vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+58.7%+$117.46
Spread: Lakers (-3.5)backed Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+96.1%+$75.9
Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)backed Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+78.6%+$235.71
Grizzlies vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+102.2%+$204.44
Spread: Warriors (-10.5)backed Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$67
Suns vs. Heatbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Nuggets vs. Pelicansbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+75.4%+$45.26
Lakers vs. Clippersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Mavericks vs. 76ersbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Pacers vs. Pelicansbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Rockets vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$78
Spurs vs. Hawksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$263Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+63.9%+$168.15
Thunder vs. Timberwolvesbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$400.24
Pistons vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+163.2%+$163.16
Warriors vs. Sunsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$143
Heat vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$150
Knicks vs. Pacersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$857Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+70.2%+$601.44
Hawks vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+109.4%+$102.36
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Rockets vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+100%+$150
Showing 25 of 45 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.34per pick56cpaid-59%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Premier League — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$132
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$500
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$210
Will Brentford FC win on 2025-12-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+122.2%+$152.78
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+47.1%+$60.24
All 9 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-01-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$355Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$355
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+33.8%+$202.66
Will AS Roma win on 2025-12-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+127.3%+$61.09
All 3 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-01-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+75.4%+$112.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Tomas Etcheverrybacked Tomas Etcheverry · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Dec 15, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2025-12-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.