TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Jazz vs. Mavericks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mavericksof Jazz, Mavericks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,777,994
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,853,778

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,777,994 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 874 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd9b…414dbacked Mavericks70c247,949$174,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73,732.251844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Jazz40c107,573$42,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,841.451,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8e6…d504backed Mavericks58c102,878$59,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,208.6521057.1%120 W · 90 L+20.3wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Mavericks58c62,315$36,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,172.2923245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Jazz42c57,878$24,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,308.8748343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44d4…1970backed Jazz42c55,483$23,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,302.7616752.1%87 W · 80 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5b4…9785backed Jazz41c55,456$22,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,736.98560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Mavericks58c55,007$32,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,882.6919751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Jazz4c54,701$2,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,242.241,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x062a…c2a3backed Jazz42c45,000$18,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,749.9819048.4%92 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Mavericks58c44,027$25,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,500.521,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bda…0b2ebacked Jazz0c41,600$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1821637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+63.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Mavericks60c41,198$24,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,449.9439842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Jazz42c35,000$14,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,70020744.9%93 W · 114 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Mavericks58c34,633$20,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,545.8951350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Mavericks59c31,575$18,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,945.8643148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Jazz0c30,126$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.978820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Jazz42c30,000$12,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,599.9920551.2%105 W · 100 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Jazz42c28,242$11,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,861.7660351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Jazz14c27,088$3,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,658.81,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Mavericks58c23,900$13,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,03859347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Jazz41c20,596$8,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,459.3439349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe12a…67efbacked Jazz42c20,000$8,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,40015841.1%65 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Jazz41c18,402$7,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,478.152,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Mavericks58c17,500$10,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,3501,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Jazz42c17,064$7,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,120.381,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Mavericks59c16,896$9,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,950.962,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9333…3fa5backed Jazz20c14,813$2,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,997.361855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Jazz1c14,600$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.95213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Jazz40c14,026$5,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,612.566853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Jazz40c13,146$5,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,258.434654%187 W · 159 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Jazz39c12,821$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe734…8f6abacked Jazz42c12,233$5,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,137.8619150.8%97 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd744…526fbacked Mavericks58c11,000$6,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,6204443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd38a…44babacked Jazz1c10,981$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-65.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Jazz8c10,320$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.638,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefa5…3d34backed Jazz5c10,219$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5457537.3%28 W · 47 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c15…35aebacked Jazz42c10,000$4,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,15010236.3%37 W · 65 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-25%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Jazz21c9,605$2,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,019.022,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Jazz41c9,507$3,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,877.6819653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Jazz1c8,500$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444573.5%16 W · 441 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Jazz39c8,444$3,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,298.072,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Mavericks61c8,197$5,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,170.436741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Jazz41c7,771$3,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,182.751,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Jazz12c7,533$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.224,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Jazz39c7,328$2,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,858.0638253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43ac…0670backed Jazz41c7,200$2,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,918.67728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x40e2…b0a7backed Mavericks76c6,512$4,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,536.752864.3%18 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+18.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Jazz41c6,000$2,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,459.9935235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Mavericks59c5,972$3,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,448.3272450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe29f…7e9dbacked Jazz3c5,509$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.772123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick29cpaid+6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c42…da3cbacked Jazz37c5,500$2,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,03514055.7%78 W · 62 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Jazz18c5,431$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.393,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0aa…7cfdbacked Jazz40c5,412$2,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,164.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Mavericks79c5,310$4,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110.691,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x80be…0a7fbacked Mavericks59c5,063$2,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,075.65250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Jazz0c5,000$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Mavericks58c5,000$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,10077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Jazz41c5,000$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,05035450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Jazz2c4,934$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.1332346.4%150 W · 173 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb90c…ab23backed Mavericks59c4,934$2,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,022.742100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+134.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd339…d3a1backed Jazz42c4,762$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Mavericks58c4,718$2,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,987.174,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68c…d5b1backed Jazz40c4,582$1,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,832.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3212…634ebacked Jazz41c4,529$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,840.4840035.5%142 W · 258 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Jazz6c4,446$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.6781529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Jazz21c4,430$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.1961939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Jazz30c4,382$1,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,297.6827865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4278…0e92backed Mavericks59c4,313$2,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,768.5341652.2%217 W · 199 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf50…290cbacked Jazz41c4,200$1,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,72210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b92…c98fbacked Mavericks59c4,200$2,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb9c…5a53backed Jazz41c4,190$1,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,717.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc9a…7ef2backed Mavericks59c4,190$2,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,717.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91c6…3768backed Jazz41c4,180$1,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,713.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb826…be7fbacked Mavericks59c4,180$2,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,713.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Jazz42c4,000$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,68051753.8%278 W · 239 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1520…378fbacked Mavericks60c4,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.9820453.9%110 W · 94 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Mavericks60c4,000$2,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,579.9747043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Jazz17c4,000$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.9842640.4%172 W · 254 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89da…a6c2backed Jazz3c3,952$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001034.9%5 W · 98 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b33…3d6abacked Jazz13c3,911$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.28531.8%27 W · 58 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x35bd…1ecfbacked Mavericks62c3,900$2,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,481.9814945.6%68 W · 81 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d26…1c15backed Mavericks60c3,831$2,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,532.222459.4%133 W · 91 L-0.6wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cd1…6b8ebacked Jazz43c3,656$1,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,564.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87e6…cad9backed Jazz40c3,550$1,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,420250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed Mavericks60c3,500$2,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,41018747.1%88 W · 99 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35ff…c53abacked Jazz40c3,500$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick62cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Jazz42c3,500$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,459.9880737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Jazz43c3,490$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50041954.4%228 W · 191 L+1.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Mavericks59c3,390$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,389.8356453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Jazz25c3,314$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.266645.9%306 W · 360 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Jazz24c3,313$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.5322140.7%90 W · 131 L+0.7wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Mavericks58c3,245$1,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,350.6530947.6%147 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Jazz42c3,085$1,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,286.0960549.8%301 W · 304 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3697…f189backed Jazz2c3,069$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6065218.4%120 W · 532 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Mavericks58c3,049$1,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,266.3862652.2%327 W · 299 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Jazz43c3,033$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30028742.9%123 W · 164 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Mavericks63c3,016$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.8750838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Jazz7c3,015$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20281845.7%374 W · 444 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1372…bf6dbacked Jazz39c3,000$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,160714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.36per pick50cpaid-79%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.