NBA · resolved market
Spread: Mavericks (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ede3b646a1b3e612690387f2f99a055534c4b634db2f02f7f07d1a6ab6b9124
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Mavericks, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5b4…9785backed Jazz | 56c | 89,678$50,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,131.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Mavericks | 44c | 60,000$26,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,600.05 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks | 45c | 10,576$4,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,851.53 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Mavericks | 44c | 10,000$4,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,600 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Mavericks | 44c | 3,000$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 267 | 55.8%149 W · 118 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Mavericks | 44c | 1,500$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 165 | 50.9%84 W · 81 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Mavericks | 45c | 1,107$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.57 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eed…85a9backed Mavericks | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 314 | 55.1%173 W · 141 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3766…a0e4backed Mavericks | 50c | 995.92$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.96 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Mavericks | 44c | 946$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.76 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1df…16c1backed Mavericks | 52c | 573.66$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.66 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Jazz | 57c | 526.05$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 400 | 41.5%166 W · 234 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Mavericks | 43c | 526.05$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…35b6backed Mavericks | 44c | 500.02$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.01 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Jazz | 56c | 403.57$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Mavericks | 50c | 382.99$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.85 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Jazz | 59c | 330.28$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.69 | 243 | 32.9%80 W · 163 L | -22.7wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…04ebbacked Jazz | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda02…fd6fbacked Jazz | 58c | 261.02$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Mavericks | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e69…200ebacked Jazz | 58c | 126.26$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.23 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Mavericks | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Jazz | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Jazz | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Mavericks (-10.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)Mavericks won
- Jazz vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Jazz vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Jazz vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Mavericks: O/U 240.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Mavericks: O/U 241.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Mavericks: O/U 252.5Over won
- Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-7.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-9.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.