NBA · resolved market
Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa531dd713de062ca4e57d72835187fe753203ea0ff5a6c2d1936a5fca5546d32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Mavericks, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Mavericks | 49c | 32,809$16,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,742.06 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Jazz | 51c | 30,000$15,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,300 | 404 | 46.8%189 W · 215 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Jazz | 52c | 10,828$5,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,630.41 | 207 | 44.9%93 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Mavericks | 49c | 10,431$5,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,343.43 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Jazz | 51c | 7,652$3,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,892.77 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Jazz | 51c | 7,195$3,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,669.28 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Mavericks | 50c | 5,921$2,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,931.41 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Jazz | 50c | 5,008$2,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,518.94 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Mavericks | 49c | 4,320$2,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,203.19 | 584 | 49.7%290 W · 294 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Mavericks | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Jazz | 50c | 3,987$1,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,993.66 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Mavericks | 50c | 3,612$1,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,806 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Mavericks | 48c | 3,083$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,603.36 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Mavericks | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 259 | 45.6%118 W · 141 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…b413backed Mavericks | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks | 48c | 2,492$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,286.58 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefa5…3d34backed Jazz | 52c | 2,487$1,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,293 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Mavericks | 53c | 2,330$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Mavericks | 50c | 2,208$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…14adbacked Jazz | 48c | 2,059$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.12 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x454f…04e7backed Mavericks | 52c | 2,059$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.12 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Jazz | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Mavericks | 49c | 1,946$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.38 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c7…2e93backed Jazz | 52c | 1,538$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Jazz | 50c | 1,435$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.49 | 164 | 42.1%69 W · 95 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Jazz | 51c | 1,100$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Mavericks | 50c | 895.52$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.9 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Mavericks | 50c | 676.92$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.46 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Mavericks | 48c | 635.56$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.49 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…585abacked Mavericks | 50c | 620.12$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.06 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Mavericks | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Jazz | 49c | 552.62$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.95 | 221 | 40.7%90 W · 131 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Jazz | 52c | 504.17$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.17 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaf…dbaabacked Jazz | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 379 | 30.6%116 W · 263 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5077…4e7cbacked Jazz | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Mavericks | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 641 | 39%250 W · 391 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ae…bf54backed Jazz | 51c | 399.99$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ca…6413backed Jazz | 51c | 388.84$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Jazz | 47c | 368$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.96 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Jazz | 50c | 308.04$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.02 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…a405backed Mavericks | 51c | 299.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Jazz | 50c | 260$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 502 | 41.2%207 W · 295 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Jazz | 50c | 240$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a60…3170backed Mavericks | 79c | 226$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Mavericks | 49c | 221.51$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.98 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Jazz | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…43e8backed Jazz | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e9…5112backed Mavericks | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 217 | 49.3%107 W · 110 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9069…9c14backed Mavericks | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jazz | 49c | 156$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.81 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Mavericks | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…f2cabacked Mavericks | 50c | 136.43$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Jazz | 36c | 132$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Jazz | 49c | 104.93$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Mavericks | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab5…2bb4backed Mavericks | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0104…530ebacked Jazz | 52c | 92.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Jazz | 31c | 88.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Mavericks | 49c | 77.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Jazz | 51c | 66.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…0d75backed Jazz | 52c | 61.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -12.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Mavericks | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Mavericks | 50c | 58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Mavericks | 51c | 54.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9713…8219backed Mavericks | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcd…43aabacked Mavericks | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Jazz | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…1e75backed Mavericks | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2413…2442backed Mavericks | 76c | 48.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e2…3000backed Mavericks | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…bf3dbacked Mavericks | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3854…586abacked Mavericks | 75c | 39.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Jazz | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Jazz | 51c | 35.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 324 | 50.6%164 W · 160 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc4…e979backed Jazz | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Jazz | 52c | 21.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a6…a17ebacked Jazz | 50c | 20.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)Mavericks won
- Jazz vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Jazz vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Jazz vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Mavericks: O/U 240.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Mavericks: O/U 241.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Mavericks: O/U 252.5Over won
- Spread: Mavericks (-10.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-7.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-9.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.