TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bulls vs. Nets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Netsof Bulls, Nets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,895,081
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,022,027

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,895,081 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,007 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2cb0…d8b6backed Bulls50c82,590$40,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,9874158.5%24 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+14.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Nets72c77,076$55,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,207.741,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Nets50c75,300$37,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,65029245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Nets51c47,384$24,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,111.694,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bulls50c44,004$21,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,895.422,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Bulls47c40,000$18,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,799.9617250.6%87 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bulls48c38,921$18,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,560.322,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Nets51c37,534$19,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,466.9443148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Bulls50c33,058$16,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,529.111,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Bulls23c30,373$6,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,993.051,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Bulls17c29,977$5,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,030.589640.6%39 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56e2…4b88backed Bulls35c21,740$7,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,615.075253.8%28 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+27.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x777d…5143backed Nets51c20,000$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,80019754.3%107 W · 90 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Bulls10c18,469$1,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,846.951,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5b4…9785backed Nets51c17,883$9,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,762.86560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Nets53c17,782$9,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,357.6110949.5%54 W · 55 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bda…0b2ebacked Bulls49c17,200$8,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,4281637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+63.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96e1…50aabacked Bulls22c16,567$3,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,580.541650%8 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40e2…b0a7backed Bulls32c16,524$5,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,293.032864.3%18 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+18.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Nets50c16,509$8,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,254.5359347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb97…7b2bbacked Bulls62c16,143$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,999.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Nets51c15,154$7,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,476.935450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a65…15b1backed Nets50c14,990$7,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,495.11850%9 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bulls11c14,259$1,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,626.834,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Bulls7c14,174$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.51,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Nets74c12,901$9,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,301.7527865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x03f9…f78ebacked Bulls13c12,697$1,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,63013339.1%52 W · 81 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2bc…0821backed Bulls29c12,600$3,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,692.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Nets52c12,439$6,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,954.1936741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Nets52c11,600$6,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,56819747.7%94 W · 103 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked Nets51c11,186$5,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,475.5817356.1%97 W · 76 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfaba…51debacked Bulls31c10,900$3,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,381.7310947.7%52 W · 57 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Bulls32c10,509$3,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,361.6685344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bulls49c10,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Bulls14c9,793$1,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410.7189444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Nets50c9,362$4,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,68128643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nets51c9,352$4,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,566.629,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Bulls36c9,000$3,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,22032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12fd…90c0backed Nets51c8,656$4,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,241.2928439.8%113 W · 171 L+0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Nets53c8,531$4,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,049.5319653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa8a5…122bbacked Nets51c8,237$4,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,036.253151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Nets52c8,078$4,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,868.2839958.4%233 W · 166 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Bulls50c8,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00024549%120 W · 125 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Nets53c7,862$4,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,697.312,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Bulls61c7,830$4,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,776.2159646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bulls32c7,652$2,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,461.795,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Nets50c7,526$3,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,76316039.4%63 W · 97 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Nets53c7,252$3,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,401.973,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Nets64c7,174$4,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,564.223747.7%113 W · 124 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf30a…0fa4backed Bulls20c7,102$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,409.863342.4%14 W · 19 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+45.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Bulls19c7,028$1,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,362.53,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Bulls9c6,274$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.4281529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Nets53c6,154$3,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,892.3830845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Nets51c6,098$3,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,987.7814358.7%84 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xccdb…ffa9backed Nets51c5,882$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,882.353884.2%32 W · 6 L+10.8wins+0.29per pick56cpaid+59.5%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x927a…f706backed Bulls12c5,800$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.6424139%94 W · 147 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Bulls18c5,702$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.5978445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed Bulls11c5,455$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.2835326.6%94 W · 259 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bulls15c5,450$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.458,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67e7…52cabacked Nets53c5,204$2,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,445.772944.8%13 W · 16 L-4.1wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-30.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Bulls49c5,172$2,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,509.011,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcbc…71c1backed Nets53c5,134$2,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,412.963050%15 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-7.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Nets60c5,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,999.996540%26 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76b3…04e1backed Bulls43c5,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,149.991050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Bulls48c4,859$2,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,354.212,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Nets50c4,787$2,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,383.4739349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa435…6500backed Nets53c4,600$2,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,162.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92e9…5784backed Bulls47c4,600$2,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,16210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13c5…67cebacked Bulls47c4,600$2,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,16210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03bb…a37fbacked Nets53c4,600$2,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1621100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa404…f14bbacked Bulls47c4,600$2,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,16210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x210d…e698backed Nets53c4,600$2,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,161.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00e0…8a94backed Bulls25c4,375$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08510448.1%50 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x816b…d69dbacked Bulls41c4,269$1,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,766.0824752.6%130 W · 117 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d26…1c15backed Nets54c4,218$2,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,940.2622459.4%133 W · 91 L-0.6wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Bulls31c4,193$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,293.5939744.3%176 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Nets51c4,167$2,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,025.1272450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Bulls6c4,166$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9639018.2%71 W · 319 L+27.6wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+62.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Nets54c4,055$2,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,856.6750241.2%207 W · 295 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Bulls49c4,019$1,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,969.3792753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x713d…53a9backed Bulls50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00018151.4%93 W · 88 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked Bulls18c3,966$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.1633428.1%94 W · 240 L-20.3wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-44.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7634…1b96backed Nets53c3,938$2,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,850.7424051.3%123 W · 117 L-0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked Nets52c3,846$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,846.0818553%98 W · 87 L+0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Nets61c3,761$2,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,478.1252460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Bulls24c3,738$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907.6961939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Bulls33c3,656$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,221.152,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Nets77c3,632$2,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.163,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Bulls45c3,543$1,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,578.252,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Bulls47c3,400$1,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,597.9875347.5%358 W · 395 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd098…8c03backed Nets52c3,384$1,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,624.432070%14 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+30.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Nets52c3,365$1,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,600.5448944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Nets53c3,333$1,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,566.5936351.2%186 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6e3…6dfebacked Bulls28c3,243$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92323052.6%121 W · 109 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab26…0c0cbacked Bulls15c3,111$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.6930619.9%61 W · 245 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x26e1…2787backed Bulls47c3,100$1,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4571936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x38fa…87b5backed Bulls10c3,072$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30033632.4%109 W · 227 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd328…973dbacked Bulls28c3,047$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.22425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-68.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5215…3164backed Bulls23c3,019$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.9811436.8%42 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Bulls47c3,000$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,41031044.8%139 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.