NBA · resolved market

Bulls vs. Nets: O/U 224.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5fcc89e9b36e82d0e97805c24d4c3164b3bd79591eabaff5e910552d44a6668

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 16, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $114,458
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $117,116

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,458 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc65c…ea39backed Over	55c	68,803$37,513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37,513.29	172	50.6%87 W · 85 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	46c	18,195$8,423 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,771.64	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x91f2…fe37backed Over	52c	9,700$5,044 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,044	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e0b…24fabacked Under	48c	9,700$4,656 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,044	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.52per pick	48cpaid	+108.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	46c	9,622$4,461 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,161.05	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Under	45c	8,889$4,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,888.89	387	50.4%195 W · 192 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	47c	8,417$3,929 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,487.97	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb48f…d015backed Under	47c	4,752$2,228 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,524.12	124	54.8%68 W · 56 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f67…fe3cbacked Under	45c	4,566$2,054 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,511.03	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.55per pick	45cpaid	+122.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over	52c	4,011$2,101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,100.64	691	49.1%339 W · 352 L	-8.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Over	49c	4,000$1,950 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,950	443	37.9%168 W · 275 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Under	45c	3,496$1,573 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,922.56	443	52.4%232 W · 211 L	+10.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e96…59f1backed Under	45c	3,400$1,530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,870	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Under	45c	3,082$1,387 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,695.1	583	47%274 W · 309 L	-12.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedb1…819ebacked Over	53c	2,830$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	158	55.7%88 W · 70 L	-9.8wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Under	48c	2,500$1,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,300	334	47.9%160 W · 174 L	-6.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Over	52c	2,500$1,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,300	477	48.8%233 W · 244 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3759…6b3bbacked Under	46c	2,424$1,120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,304.12	98	50%49 W · 49 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under	54c	1,979$1,073 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$905.64	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa44e…87aebacked Under	45c	1,904$857 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,047.44	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.27per pick	47cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0500…6158backed Under	45c	1,831$824 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,007.11	121	51.2%62 W · 59 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over	52c	1,734$902 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$901.55	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Under	45c	1,613$726 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$887.33	254	52.8%134 W · 120 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf20f…3b33backed Under	45c	1,556$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$855.56	183	43.7%80 W · 103 L	-11.0wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-12%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	22c	1,190$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.72	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Over	15c	1,139$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.89	520	52.3%272 W · 248 L	+31.4wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+19%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7973…34d4backed Under	45c	1,102$496 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$606.22	54	37%20 W · 34 L	-6.4wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under	46c	1,000$460 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$540	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5a9…45ffbacked Under	45c	820.4$369 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$451.22	238	50%119 W · 119 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Over	53c	800$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$424	672	52.7%354 W · 318 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed Under	45c	562.22$253 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$309.22	130	41.5%54 W · 76 L	-8.8wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Under	49c	515$252 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$262.65	303	51.8%157 W · 146 L	+4.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under	46c	446$205 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240.84	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Under	45c	444.44$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$244.44	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Over	51c	399.99$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	249	55.8%139 W · 110 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	47c	391.49$184 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$207.49	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e36…6ce1backed Under	45c	377.78$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$207.78	30	60%18 W · 12 L	+2.9wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over	51c	353.99$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.54	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Under	45c	327.76$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180.27	657	50.1%329 W · 328 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bc8…a613backed Over	55c	320.45$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.14per pick	61cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01b1…0436backed Over	53c	285.65$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.28	25	36%9 W · 16 L	-3.5wins	-0.14per pick	50cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7140…47e3backed Under	45c	222.22$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.22	126	50%63 W · 63 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed Under	49c	208.65$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.41	259	51.4%133 W · 126 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4c9…617dbacked Under	49c	204.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.08	113	51.3%58 W · 55 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over	54c	200$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	841	50.3%423 W · 418 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Over	53c	200$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	368	54.1%199 W · 169 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under	45c	200$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2496…50a5backed Over	54c	185.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	55	47.3%26 W · 29 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Under	45c	177.78$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.78	334	42.8%143 W · 191 L	-17.9wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-13%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Over	46c	158.47$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.92	263	36.5%96 W · 167 L	-9.1wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Under	45c	155.26$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.5	661	43.4%287 W · 374 L	-32.6wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x437b…0ba4backed Over	55c	150$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.5	165	47.3%78 W · 87 L	-8.8wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Over	48c	150$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.57	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked Under	48c	138.46$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72	183	45.4%83 W · 100 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Under	47c	120$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.6	249	46.6%116 W · 133 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Over	25c	118$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	323	46.4%150 W · 173 L	-8.3wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	45c	100$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8046…a845backed Under	47c	99.98$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.99	111	37.8%42 W · 69 L	-14.2wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-28%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0xfbb5…638abacked Over	53c	94.34$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fb4…d481backed Over	52c	92.88$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.3	57	54.4%31 W · 26 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over	53c	80.96$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.91	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98cd…9417backed Over	52c	59$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.68	46	58.7%27 W · 19 L	+3.8wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under	47c	50.85$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.03	1,425	47.7%680 W · 745 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over	25c	50$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe881…1e75backed Under	49c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	37	51.4%19 W · 18 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4339…beeebacked Over	53c	47.17$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	35	31.4%11 W · 24 L	-6.8wins	-0.19per pick	51cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0x83fd…cad0backed Over	55c	46.58$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.77	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.20per pick	60cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Over	51c	44$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.44	689	40.2%277 W · 412 L	-54.9wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	50c	43.77$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.89	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9f8…5486backed Over	55c	43.6$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.98	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1d…58fcbacked Under	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	74	40.5%30 W · 44 L	-5.3wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9331…0951backed Under	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	42	52.4%22 W · 20 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Over	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	319	47.6%152 W · 167 L	-18.8wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Under	54c	37.93$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.64	1,029	47.7%491 W · 538 L	-13.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc95f…357fbacked Under	48c	31.5$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.38	168	52.4%88 W · 80 L	+6.1wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b7f…7aecbacked Under	49c	30.61$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.61	436	47.9%209 W · 227 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Over	53c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	879	50.6%445 W · 434 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cb8…7529backed Over	56c	26.79$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-2.4wins	-0.10per pick	54cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f45…709abacked Over	52c	26$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.52	92	42.4%39 W · 53 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9e…0db0backed Over	53c	24.02$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.73	72	45.8%33 W · 39 L	-4.0wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under	47c	24$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.72	1,634	48.1%786 W · 848 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16fe…9496backed Over	56c	21.43$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	82	35.4%29 W · 53 L	-10.9wins	-0.13per pick	49cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed Under	49c	20.82$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.62	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaab3…35f3backed Over	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	50	52%26 W · 24 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bulls vs. Nets: O/U 224.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event