NBA · resolved market

Bulls vs. Nets: O/U 225.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00861c6d5fa7c53c64f379bb6b03f7f0b0062bf8c2ca69bf7a726b48934ac541

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 16, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $32,800
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $33,364

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,800 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf059…6dd9backed Under	50c	5,749$2,850 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,898.98	492	46.3%228 W · 264 L	-15.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3ea…bb01backed Over	52c	5,525$2,866 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,865.6	56	48.2%27 W · 29 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Under	51c	5,267$2,712 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,555.02	416	49.8%207 W · 209 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over	50c	4,151$2,092 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,092.02	691	49.1%339 W · 352 L	-8.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	50c	3,513$1,740 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,740.35	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	49c	3,468$1,682 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,785.83	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over	50c	2,548$1,274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,274	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3759…6b3bbacked Under	50c	1,200$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$600	98	50%49 W · 49 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under	49c	1,000$490 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$510	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked Under	50c	991$496 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$495.5	183	45.4%83 W · 100 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	50c	925.57$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$459.93	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over	51c	724.49$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.49	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Under	51c	629.59$321 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$308.5	478	56.7%271 W · 207 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under	48c	561.34$268 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$293.12	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over	52c	548.6$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.17	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	50c	500$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.38	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Over	50c	464.83$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.42	263	36.5%96 W · 167 L	-9.1wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed Under	50c	400$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	179	53.1%95 W · 84 L	+7.9wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd947…9b61backed Under	50c	400$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	287	51.9%149 W · 138 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Over	51c	392.16$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over	51c	373.82$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.39	841	50.3%423 W · 418 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd098…8c03backed Under	50c	224$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112	20	70%14 W · 6 L	+3.3wins	+0.16per pick	54cpaid	+30.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Over	49c	220$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.8	239	46.4%111 W · 128 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x240d…a928backed Under	47c	212.77$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.77	164	40.9%67 W · 97 L	-13.9wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Over	52c	200$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	237	48.1%114 W · 123 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Under	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	656	49.2%323 W · 333 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	51c	182.93$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.59	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b87…f42dbacked Under	52c	178.37$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.49	75	44%33 W · 42 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over	49c	173.33$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.93	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x437b…0ba4backed Over	53c	150$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.5	165	47.3%78 W · 87 L	-8.8wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Over	48c	110.02$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.06	689	40.2%277 W · 412 L	-54.9wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Over	50c	100.01$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.8	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under	46c	100$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87ae…811bbacked Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	175	45.7%80 W · 95 L	-9.2wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca6d…492bbacked Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	90	53.3%48 W · 42 L	+4.1wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Under	46c	99.37$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.25	661	43.4%287 W · 374 L	-32.6wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x773b…1b80backed Over	51c	90$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.9	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over	50c	77.62$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.81	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1393…8392backed Under	51c	73$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.77	90	48.9%44 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f5…bf3dbacked Under	51c	70$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.3	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	-3.5wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Under	49c	68.71$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.36	830	39.4%327 W · 503 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over	50c	52.49$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.42	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9713…8219backed Under	51c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.5	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-3.1wins	-0.16per pick	51cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x60c2…8052backed Under	51c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.5	153	47.1%72 W · 81 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked Under	48c	50$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26	165	49.7%82 W · 83 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9f8…5486backed Over	52c	48.11$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.78	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under	48c	41.66$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.66	1,264	45.8%579 W · 685 L	-10.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb53c…c76ebacked Over	50c	34$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	487	40.7%198 W · 289 L	-13.0wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b9e…0db0backed Over	51c	33.84$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.42	72	45.8%33 W · 39 L	-4.0wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0969…b289backed Under	46c	30.5$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.47	222	47.3%105 W · 117 L	-4.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce9b…0bc0backed Over	49c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x89a4…5f78backed Under	51c	20.41$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	100	53%53 W · 47 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47ba…a503backed Under	49c	20.41$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.41	169	42.6%72 W · 97 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bulls vs. Nets: O/U 225.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event