NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 246.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ce03021e68a5669d42c312e6a3ed8a3586ba7b34337aa73567e9d2c31df5202

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 26, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $44,491
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $44,556

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,491 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x68dd…f0b2backed Under	46c	20,046$9,256 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,790.24	513	50.1%257 W · 256 L	+6.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	54c	13,845$7,426 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,425.57	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Under	48c	10,000$4,800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,200	1,124	48.6%546 W · 578 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over	53c	8,813$4,671 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,670.89	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c47…da33backed Over	52c	7,322$3,807 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,807.36	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.24per pick	49cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Under	46c	6,000$2,760 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,240	169	42%71 W · 98 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Under	48c	5,000$2,400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,599.99	1,269	44.5%565 W · 704 L	+32.4wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Over	52c	3,942$2,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,049.84	583	47%274 W · 309 L	-12.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Over	55c	3,360$1,848 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,848	927	53.5%496 W · 431 L	+20.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26eb…22d0backed Over	52c	1,174$610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$610.48	277	35%97 W · 180 L	-30.7wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	55c	747.49$411 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$411.12	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked Over	54c	674.07$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364	72	45.8%33 W · 39 L	-4.4wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Over	53c	633.6$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.79	511	46.6%238 W · 273 L	-13.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under	49c	528$261 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$267.35	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Over	54c	438.43$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.75	229	45.9%105 W · 124 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	48c	400$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x92fa…7d02backed Over	52c	400$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208	38	44.7%17 W · 21 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over	52c	384.62$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Over	54c	300$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162	623	47.5%296 W · 327 L	-17.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Under	49c	250$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.5	617	40.7%251 W · 366 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa224…4cb8backed Over	45c	200$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	47cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0fd…5903backed Over	60c	132.63$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	106	46.2%49 W · 57 L	-12.5wins	-0.12per pick	58cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf39d…c817backed Under	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	70	65.7%46 W · 24 L	+4.3wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over	54c	99.02$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.61	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	48c	83.33$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.33	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under	47c	74.28$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.37	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x715c…78c0backed Under	47c	63.83$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.83	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	38c	53.29$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.01	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e2c…6aaebacked Over	54c	47.68$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.75	102	34.3%35 W · 67 L	-12.7wins	-0.12per pick	47cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb4f7…1cddbacked Under	49c	35$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.85	67	41.8%28 W · 39 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-10%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Over	55c	33.62$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.49	762	50.4%384 W · 378 L	+3.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under	44c	27.47$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.27	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b6d…8727backed Over	61c	24.59$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	63cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x581b…f083backed Over	52c	21.46$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.16	42	57.1%24 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf15b…4b51backed Under	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 246.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event