NBA · resolved market

Spread: Hawks (-3.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x794bdd636a44002d7d04f930d06a3502084356775643c55733e748d48c2554a8

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Heatof Hawks, Heat
Resolved: Dec 26, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,300,376
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,307,267

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,300,376 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc2e7…be51backed Hawks	50c	1,067,146$538,054 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$538,053.52	100	49%49 W · 51 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Heat	50c	400,000$198,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$202,000	262	53.8%141 W · 121 L	+10.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Heat	49c	193,718$95,651 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98,066.9	871	44.7%389 W · 482 L	+14.9wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Heat	49c	122,779$60,762 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62,017.46	596	53.4%318 W · 278 L	+4.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Heat	50c	72,166$36,120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36,046.4	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Heat	50c	60,819$30,615 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30,203.91	593	47%279 W · 314 L	-7.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc675…2ff3backed Heat	51c	44,812$22,709 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22,102.95	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-4.8wins	-0.15per pick	56cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0352…3292backed Heat	51c	41,456$20,967 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20,489.44	101	58.4%59 W · 42 L	+7.4wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Heat	50c	35,153$17,525 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17,628.15	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3080…5f29backed Hawks	48c	30,000$14,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,400	23	69.6%16 W · 7 L	+4.4wins	+0.19per pick	50cpaid	+38.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb889…a430backed Heat	52c	30,000$15,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,400	92	63%58 W · 34 L	+9.8wins	+0.11per pick	52cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Heat	50c	28,442$14,220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,221.84	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Heat	49c	22,500$11,025 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,475	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Heat	49c	22,056$10,871 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,184.65	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Hawks	49c	21,399$10,485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,485.42	193	51.3%99 W · 94 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Heat	51c	12,868$6,562 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,305.08	1,045	49%512 W · 533 L	+21.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Heat	50c	10,250$5,125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,125	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Heat	50c	8,523$4,265 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,258.76	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Heat	50c	8,156$4,078 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,078.01	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Heat	53c	8,000$4,240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,760	517	53.8%278 W · 239 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cea…3ba8backed Heat	51c	8,000$4,080 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,920	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0801…fd93backed Hawks	49c	8,000$3,920 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,920	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Heat	50c	5,429$2,700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,728.79	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Hawks	50c	4,798$2,398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,397.66	691	49.1%339 W · 352 L	-8.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Hawks	49c	4,000$1,960 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,960	362	48.9%177 W · 185 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Heat	51c	3,559$1,815 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,744.09	155	49.7%77 W · 78 L	-6.6wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Heat	51c	3,160$1,612 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,548.53	278	40.6%113 W · 165 L	-22.5wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Heat	52c	3,159$1,643 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,516.2	1,374	50.1%689 W · 685 L	+34.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Heat	49c	3,000$1,479 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,521.43	446	54.3%242 W · 204 L	+21.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat	51c	2,784$1,421 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,362.43	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Heat	52c	2,500$1,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,200	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x273c…7a42backed Heat	50c	2,387$1,182 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,205.65	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf699…14adbacked Hawks	50c	2,313$1,157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,156.5	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-1.9wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bde…ca3abacked Heat	50c	2,313$1,157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,156.5	24	62.5%15 W · 9 L	+3.1wins	+0.13per pick	50cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Heat	50c	2,000$1,007 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$993.33	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Heat	51c	2,000$1,020 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$980	480	54.2%260 W · 220 L	+14.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e68…3215backed Heat	51c	1,961$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$960.78	117	55.6%65 W · 52 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Heat	51c	1,961$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$960.78	767	46.4%356 W · 411 L	-16.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d43…bc5ebacked Heat	50c	1,906$953 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$952.84	94	51.1%48 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Hawks	49c	1,883$922 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$922.49	579	50.1%290 W · 289 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Heat	49c	1,421$702 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$719.15	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Heat	51c	1,271$648 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$622.79	583	47%274 W · 309 L	-12.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Hawks	47c	1,050$498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$497.5	623	51.4%320 W · 303 L	-13.7wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Heat	69c	1,015$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$314.65	503	47.9%241 W · 262 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Heat	51c	980.39$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480.39	656	49.2%323 W · 333 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Heat	51c	972.81$498 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$474.95	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Heat	51c	813.48$418 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$395.46	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Hawks	48c	747.98$359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.03	1,212	48.3%586 W · 626 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcea6…67adbacked Hawks	50c	600$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	284	48.2%137 W · 147 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Hawks	47c	525$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.75	715	47.7%341 W · 374 L	-26.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Hawks	50c	523.37$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.51	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Hawks	48c	500$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	956	41.7%399 W · 557 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Hawks	49c	500$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245	409	47.7%195 W · 214 L	-13.0wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Heat	52c	500$260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240	228	46.1%105 W · 123 L	-6.0wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc443…359bbacked Hawks	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	238	45%107 W · 131 L	-8.7wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf13b…9ef9backed Heat	52c	380.75$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$182.76	217	53%115 W · 102 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Hawks	53c	377.36$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x101c…7df8backed Hawks	48c	322$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.76	86	44.2%38 W · 48 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf87b…180abacked Heat	50c	300$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	165	39.4%65 W · 100 L	-11.6wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-15%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Hawks	48c	300$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…dca3backed Heat	52c	288.46$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.46	150	52.7%79 W · 71 L	+5.0wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Heat	50c	250$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125	500	47.2%236 W · 264 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d84…aa68backed Heat	51c	244.85$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.98	110	60%66 W · 44 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc468…530fbacked Hawks	49c	228.99$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.26	94	43.6%41 W · 53 L	-12.3wins	-0.13per pick	57cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x699c…3600backed Heat	51c	218$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.82	80	52.5%42 W · 38 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Hawks	49c	204.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Heat	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	786	52.4%412 W · 374 L	+14.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed Hawks	48c	200$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	266	59%157 W · 109 L	+12.1wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8208…1742backed Hawks	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	-3.2wins	-0.12per pick	53cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xba36…52d0backed Heat	51c	199$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.17	68	55.9%38 W · 30 L	+3.5wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e57…21cbbacked Heat	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	56	55.4%31 W · 25 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41ce…6509backed Heat	53c	188.68$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.68	280	46.8%131 W · 149 L	-6.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ca2…79abbacked Heat	53c	184.91$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.91	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.22per pick	51cpaid	-42%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc880…a622backed Heat	51c	162$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.38	74	41.9%31 W · 43 L	-4.5wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fa6…0b3bbacked Heat	49c	150$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.5	23	69.6%16 W · 7 L	+3.9wins	+0.17per pick	53cpaid	+40%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x740b…1d47backed Heat	67c	149.25$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.25	94	58.5%55 W · 39 L	+4.3wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Hawks	31c	148.35$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.47	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e84…b7f6backed Heat	52c	138.83$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.64	64	48.4%31 W · 33 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f19…e03ebacked Hawks	48c	124.09$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b33…8c31backed Hawks	52c	118.65$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.38	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Heat	51c	113.73$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.73	685	42.6%292 W · 393 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Hawks	50c	109.15$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.27	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x102f…9b6ebacked Heat	50c	107$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.5	60	53.3%32 W · 28 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Hawks	48c	106.25$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Heat	75c	104.25$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.06	489	57.5%281 W · 208 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Hawks	48c	104.17$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	522	42.7%223 W · 299 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Heat	51c	102$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.98	83	55.4%46 W · 37 L	+4.8wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Heat	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	503	46.5%234 W · 269 L	-6.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5b3…0476backed Heat	51c	98.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.04	32	59.4%19 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	63cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b46…944cbacked Heat	53c	94.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	171	55.6%95 W · 76 L	+6.7wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83fc…13ccbacked Heat	51c	93.66$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.9	126	54%68 W · 58 L	+6.0wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4dc…d394backed Heat	51c	93$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.57	69	52.2%36 W · 33 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Heat	50c	92.15$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.05	890	50.4%449 W · 441 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Hawks	51c	90.61$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.21	762	47.1%359 W · 403 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Heat	50c	90.01$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.92	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fde…66b2backed Heat	54c	87.04$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.04	57	56.1%32 W · 25 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Hawks	49c	81.63$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Hawks	48c	78.19$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.53	136	38.2%52 W · 84 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Hawks	45c	63.64$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.64	342	46.8%160 W · 182 L	+18.1wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc36…1b11backed Heat	53c	60$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.2	99	43.4%43 W · 56 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Hawks (-3.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event