NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 250.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9815cd8fe03633e49057cfb46cae1271af4efd4d19608c76856b9961f4def3a2

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 26, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $33,023
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $35,612

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,023 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe90b…5da2backed Under	52c	17,490$9,040 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,449.91	1,045	49%512 W · 533 L	+21.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	48c	17,212$8,220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,220.36	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Over	50c	5,000$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,500	185	47%87 W · 98 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Over	50c	3,500$1,765 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,764.99	166	33.7%56 W · 110 L	-11.6wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under	48c	2,614$1,261 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,353.19	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Over	48c	2,083$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	164	42.1%69 W · 95 L	-7.6wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Under	53c	2,036$1,072 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$964.19	484	48.8%236 W · 248 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe05…6badbacked Under	50c	1,999$999 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$999.49	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Under	53c	1,415$750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$665.09	653	39.5%258 W · 395 L	-24.6wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Under	52c	952.83$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$452.83	227	56.8%129 W · 98 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	51c	722$371 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$351	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Over	48c	614.47$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294.95	409	47.7%195 W · 214 L	-13.0wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa1a…d9abbacked Under	53c	301.89$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.89	83	44.6%37 W · 46 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Over	48c	300$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	1,197	47.5%569 W · 628 L	-32.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e84…b7f6backed Under	52c	259.57$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.26	64	48.4%31 W · 33 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35af…44f3backed Over	50c	222$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111	179	53.6%96 W · 83 L	-5.7wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under	57c	201.75$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.75	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under	53c	188.77$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.77	312	49.4%154 W · 158 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6995…c072backed Over	48c	170$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.6	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-4.6wins	-0.25per pick	48cpaid	-55.5%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Over	48c	145.83$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	334	42.8%143 W · 191 L	-17.9wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-13%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d84…aa68backed Under	52c	117.59$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.44	110	60%66 W · 44 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	44c	110.27$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.75	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Under	53c	100$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf39d…c817backed Under	53c	100$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47	70	65.7%46 W · 24 L	+4.3wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Under	51c	98.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.04	516	51.2%264 W · 252 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e24…b31fbacked Under	53c	94.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	143	57.3%82 W · 61 L	+6.9wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7180…bdbabacked Under	53c	94.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	156	57.7%90 W · 66 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	48c	82$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.36	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5425…8b3abacked Under	53c	56.6$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.6	291	56.4%164 W · 127 L	+13.8wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+11%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over	48c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	539	51.6%278 W · 261 L	+20.3wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed Under	51c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.5	690	49.4%341 W · 349 L	-30.0wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x110d…cd01backed Under	52c	48.08$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.08	345	56.2%194 W · 151 L	+17.1wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Under	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	603	46.4%280 W · 323 L	-12.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under	57c	35.09$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.09	1,758	48.7%856 W · 902 L	+28.3wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Under	52c	28.85$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.85	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3bd…2bf8backed Under	53c	20.31$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.62	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+43.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 250.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event