NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 248.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f4d11b6e38fafefa32368a1c801014e9b9c07c6d2346b74e63e481b5c8b0f7c

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 26, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $36,963
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $37,110

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,963 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd89e…35fabacked Under	51c	19,791$10,003 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,787.74	45	44.4%20 W · 25 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	50c	18,170$9,131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,130.78	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c51…60bcbacked Under	51c	8,400$4,284 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,116	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42e9…80a8backed Over	49c	8,400$4,116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,116	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+15%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Over	48c	3,015$1,447 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,447.2	927	53.5%496 W · 431 L	+20.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	45c	1,242$555 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$686.85	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	52c	1,162$602 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$602.38	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Over	48c	1,042$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	269	49.1%132 W · 137 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Over	56c	999$559 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$559.44	435	43.4%189 W · 246 L	-16.0wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under	51c	980$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480.2	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Under	46c	750$345 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$405	1,045	49%512 W · 533 L	+21.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68bf…3e67backed Over	54c	750$405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$405	102	44.1%45 W · 57 L	-6.9wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under	46c	735$338 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$396.9	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9519…3b2ebacked Over	58c	624.36$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361	178	56.2%100 W · 78 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f0f…45c3backed Under	46c	586.96$270 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$316.96	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.5wins	+0.18per pick	57cpaid	+45.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under	42c	469.36$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$272.23	1,198	38.8%465 W · 733 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	51c	450.46$229 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$221	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under	45c	444$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$244.2	226	56.6%128 W · 98 L	+13.0wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over	48c	416.67$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc23…a56ebacked Under	52c	390$203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$187.2	47	40.4%19 W · 28 L	-8.2wins	-0.18per pick	58cpaid	-26%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	52c	264.35$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.89	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Under	46c	217.39$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.39	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	46c	200$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7bc…6ad9backed Over	54c	200$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.2wins	-0.59per pick	59cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Over	52c	165.78$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.21	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e84…b7f6backed Under	47c	145.38$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.05	64	48.4%31 W · 33 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over	51c	138$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.82	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over	48c	111.63$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.51	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under	45c	110.62$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.84	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under	45c	106$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.3	726	47.7%346 W · 380 L	+5.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7635…63f6backed Over	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	214	40.7%87 W · 127 L	-16.2wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under	48c	100$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1889…0714backed Under	48c	75$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.25	210	56.2%118 W · 92 L	+10.9wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over	46c	74$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.04	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under	54c	74$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.04	1,113	41.6%463 W · 650 L	-10.0wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Over	49c	59$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.76	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Under	53c	56.7$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.65	228	46.1%105 W · 123 L	-6.0wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under	42c	42$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.36	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	485	46.4%225 W · 260 L	-14.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over	48c	37.95$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.11	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Over	48c	30.17$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.48	762	50.4%384 W · 378 L	+3.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xbaf1…47a4backed Under	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	72	50%36 W · 36 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 248.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event