NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 249.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f1fe2dabd7c1316e6e49e59398a6ced6d7527d2d24b8a1dcf53e2111ce97971

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 26, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $353,233
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $356,396

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $353,233 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xaefe…1e4abacked Under	49c	309,000$151,410 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$157,589.99	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	55cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Over	51c	302,188$154,116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154,115.99	1,045	49%512 W · 533 L	+21.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	51c	12,295$6,218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,217.55	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Under	50c	10,003$4,971 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,031.97	1,124	48.6%546 W · 578 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over	50c	8,693$4,349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,348.65	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Under	50c	5,814$2,907 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,907	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+100%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x535b…25a9backed Over	53c	5,637$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	125	55.2%69 W · 56 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under	50c	5,000$2,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,500	475	42.3%201 W · 274 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8a1…2974backed Under	53c	4,226$2,240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,986.35	173	31.8%55 W · 118 L	-8.0wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	47c	4,224$1,985 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,985.5	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d43…bc5ebacked Over	50c	4,000$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	94	51.1%48 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb19f…dd0ebacked Under	49c	2,985$1,455 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,529.82	73	65.8%48 W · 25 L	+8.4wins	+0.12per pick	54cpaid	+24%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Under	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,000	400	41.5%166 W · 234 L	-5.9wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e68…3215backed Over	51c	1,961$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	117	55.6%65 W · 52 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd708…b9d2backed Over	52c	846.15$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440	43	48.8%21 W · 22 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed Over	52c	774.99$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$403	15	80%12 W · 3 L	+4.7wins	+0.31per pick	49cpaid	+73%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Over	52c	615.38$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	672	52.7%354 W · 318 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x89bd…3f72backed Over	53c	400$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212	112	43.8%49 W · 63 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a45…41f6backed Under	48c	208.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.33	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.33per pick	53cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Under	49c	204.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.08	1,110	52%577 W · 533 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…14d9backed Under	49c	204.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.08	139	46.8%65 W · 74 L	+11.6wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa224…4cb8backed Under	49c	199.99$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.99	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	47cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e84…b7f6backed Over	52c	196.86$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.33	64	48.4%31 W · 33 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Over	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	364	50.8%185 W · 179 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x40e9…5729backed Under	49c	157.14$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.14	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1600…5a08backed Over	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	141	27.7%39 W · 102 L	-16.4wins	-0.12per pick	39cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Under	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	522	42.7%223 W · 299 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Over	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	289	49.1%142 W · 147 L	-9.5wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6921…2345backed Over	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	170	41.8%71 W · 99 L	-12.5wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6fb3…c801backed Over	52c	76.92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	62	37.1%23 W · 39 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe05b…0912backed Under	49c	51.02$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.02	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+2.3wins	+0.19per pick	47cpaid	+40.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over	50c	39.68$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.04	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Under	62c	32.96$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.52	1,390	26%361 W · 1,029 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce49…4740backed Under	50c	32.44$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.22	236	42.4%100 W · 136 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7597…a162backed Under	50c	30.96$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.48	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.0wins	-0.26per pick	51cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7590…d6e0backed Under	49c	30.61$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.61	41	58.5%24 W · 17 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over	51c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	452	51.1%231 W · 221 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3738…32a4backed Over	53c	20.75$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	53cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 249.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event